1) As most of you know, IS has not yet commented on the reports, and today its official media on the messaging app Telegram has put out business-as-usual claims about IS attacks in Iraq and Syria
2) While the group typically doesn’t rush to confirm or deny such killings, it’s worth recalling that IS had uncharacteristically confirmed the death of its ex spokesman al-Adnani on the same day he was reported to have been killed, on 30 Aug 2016, in a US strike in Syria
3) When Baghdadi’s predecessor Abu-Omar al-Baghdadi, and his "war minister" Abu-Hamzah al-Muhajir, were killed in a joint US-Iraqi operation in 2010, the group, known at the time as Islamic State in Iraq, acknowledged their deaths within a week of the operation.
4) If Baghdadi’s death is confirmed, there is no obvious successor as the group has not publicly identified a deputy for the IS leader...
..Generally, the group is secretive about identifying its top, central officials while they’re alive, apart from identifying its spokesmen, currently a man only known by the nom de guerre as Abu al-Hasan al-Muhajir, and previously identifying regional officials.
5) As for IS supporters, they’re clearly unsure if Baghdadi is dead or not. Several supporters on Telegram are reminding each other that only news from IS official sources can be trusted. They are also warning against “rumours” and citing official IS literature on the subject.
6) I also noticed several sharing scriptures from the Quran & Hadith to the effect that the deaths of prophets or top leaders don't spell the end of a group /faith/ideology, etc. – by way of downplaying the impact of the possible death of Baghdadi on the continuation of ISIS
7) Some supporters have even cast doubt about the details of the US raid, saying the targeted location housed a Hurras al-Din (al-Qaeda in Syria) figure.
8) As my colleague @AbdirahimS notes, Idlib, where Baghdadi was reportedly found and killed, is the stronghold of IS's staunch rival Hayat Tahrir al-Sham that has repeatedly flaunted its "arrests" of IS cells in the province.
