Thread by @Charles_Lister

BREAKING - #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-#Baghdadi revealed in-person on new #ISIS video post-#Caliphate defeat in #Syria-#Iraq.

He appears in fine health, despite reports of severe injury.

I'm honestly unconvinced that this "diminished" point translates over to #ISIS & its existing/possible support base.

To me, this seems like a Western-centric point from which to analyze a video containing #Baghdadi's 2nd appearance in ~5yrs - a big deal.

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/status/1123129159109304321

#pt: For #ISIS, the struggle is theologically infinite - it isn't "defeated" or "prevented" by territorial losses.

e.g. #Trump's #Syria withdrawal announcement in #Dec '18 would have been perceived as a sign of eventual victory.

- #Baghdadi's video = fuel, not sign of weakness.

#pt: #Baghdadi's video isn't necessarily intended to fuel the fight; instead, it's designed to simply say: "stay the course, nothing has changed."

The timing; speed of release; aesthetics & symbolism & message are all to say: "business as usual at home & we're still expanding."

I spoke with @joyCTV about this yesterday (from 15:00) - stressing the significance of the #ISIS video as a clear attempt to say: "we're still here" & as a further effort "to stake the claim as the next #BinLaden."

ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1…

@JoyCTV In response to #Baghdadi's video, I told @wrightr:

- "We shouldn't kid ourselves... in eastern #Syria alone, #ISIS has conducted 85+ attacks in the month since its territorial defeat... and 1000s of fighters remain in operation."

newyorker.com/news/news-desk…

@JoyCTV @wrightr Another dynamic to bear in mind is the sheer scale of the challenge we now face "post-#ISIS," in #Syria & #Iraq.

It **far** eclipses what was left behind after #AQI was "defeated" in #Iraq in 2009-10.

I wrote about this for @politico 6wks ago, here:

politico.com/magazine/story…

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico In this excellent report by @Elizrael & @samboosa_a, one gets a glimpse into just one aspect of this mammoth challenge - the fate of displaced people in #Iraq accused of links to #ISIS.

There are 100,000-500,000 of them, stuck in grim internment camps:

foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/29/amo…

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico @Elizrael @samboosa_a The fate of 10,000s of children -- most #Syria-n & #Iraq-i, but many now stateless -- stuck within internment camps with little/no life prospects should be a serious source of concern.

One such 16-yr-old attempted a suicide bombing in #Mosul 4 days ago:

https://twitter.com/MosulEye/status/1122183989102616576

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico @Elizrael @samboosa_a "The Obliteration of #Baghouz: How Many People Died in the Last Stronghold of #ISIS?"

- This is a hard hitting piece by @samueloakford - @CJTFOIR massively underestimated people numbers, but still used a huge amount of firepower.

thedailybeast.com/the-obliterati…