, 10 tweets, 16 min read Read on Twitter
BREAKING - #ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-#Baghdadi revealed in-person on new #ISIS video post-#Caliphate defeat in #Syria-#Iraq.

He appears in fine health, despite reports of severe injury.
I'm honestly unconvinced that this "diminished" point translates over to #ISIS & its existing/possible support base.

To me, this seems like a Western-centric point from which to analyze a video containing #Baghdadi's 2nd appearance in ~5yrs - a big deal.

#pt: For #ISIS, the struggle is theologically infinite - it isn't "defeated" or "prevented" by territorial losses.

e.g. #Trump's #Syria withdrawal announcement in #Dec '18 would have been perceived as a sign of eventual victory.

- #Baghdadi's video = fuel, not sign of weakness.
#pt: #Baghdadi's video isn't necessarily intended to fuel the fight; instead, it's designed to simply say: "stay the course, nothing has changed."

The timing; speed of release; aesthetics & symbolism & message are all to say: "business as usual at home & we're still expanding."
I spoke with @joyCTV about this yesterday (from 15:00) - stressing the significance of the #ISIS video as a clear attempt to say: "we're still here" & as a further effort "to stake the claim as the next #BinLaden."

@JoyCTV In response to #Baghdadi's video, I told @wrightr:

- "We shouldn't kid ourselves... in eastern #Syria alone, #ISIS has conducted 85+ attacks in the month since its territorial defeat... and 1000s of fighters remain in operation."

@JoyCTV @wrightr Another dynamic to bear in mind is the sheer scale of the challenge we now face "post-#ISIS," in #Syria & #Iraq.

It **far** eclipses what was left behind after #AQI was "defeated" in #Iraq in 2009-10.

I wrote about this for @politico 6wks ago, here:

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico In this excellent report by @Elizrael & @samboosa_a, one gets a glimpse into just one aspect of this mammoth challenge - the fate of displaced people in #Iraq accused of links to #ISIS.

There are 100,000-500,000 of them, stuck in grim internment camps:

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico @Elizrael @samboosa_a The fate of 10,000s of children -- most #Syria-n & #Iraq-i, but many now stateless -- stuck within internment camps with little/no life prospects should be a serious source of concern.

One such 16-yr-old attempted a suicide bombing in #Mosul 4 days ago:

@JoyCTV @wrightr @politico @Elizrael @samboosa_a "The Obliteration of #Baghouz: How Many People Died in the Last Stronghold of #ISIS?"

- This is a hard hitting piece by @samueloakford - @CJTFOIR massively underestimated people numbers, but still used a huge amount of firepower.

Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Charles Lister
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!