Want to reinforce a point @ryanavent made a couple of weeks ago. U.S. fixed investment is weak. Some of that is clearly trade war related uncertainty. But not all of it is.
Weakness in residential investment is likely the Fed's tightening. Weakness in structures = oil
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Weakness in residential investment is likely the Fed's tightening. Weakness in structures = oil
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@ryanavent Structures (business structures) includes oil wells (and the rest is somewhat interest rate sensitive). It fell sharply back in 2015.
Fall off in equipment is trade war uncertainty, plus a fading of the impact of tax cuts.
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Fall off in equipment is trade war uncertainty, plus a fading of the impact of tax cuts.
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@ryanavent Tis striking tho how small the impact of the corporate tax cut on business fixed investment has been. Contribution from business fixed investment has on average been about 0.5 pp of GDP over Trump's term, which is on the soft side.
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@ryanavent Pick your preferred cause -- Fed, trade uncertainty, fall off in drilling, overestimation of the impact of US investment of giving US firms a tax cut on their offshore profits, no doubt others ...
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