Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Just did a GE panel event with Sir John Curtice (v cool honour) and things he said which stuck out:

• Tory v Labour battle is “who can avoid losing the least” seats
• Surprised if turnout is <70%
• Paradox: Johnson needs LDs to do well, Corbyn needs Brexit Party to do well
Some nuance on point 3:

Curtice said a strong Lib Dem performance nationwide would take votes from Corbyn in Labour-Tory marginals (Johnson’s target seats) meaning the Tories wouldn’t have to do that much to win a number of them.
Another point Curtice made this morning: It's a "myth" that British people just want Brexit done ASAP

He said polling shows that most people would prefer it be sorted in an orderly way, rather than done quickly
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Adam Payne

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @adampayne26 see all

Profile picture
Adam Payne
@adampayne26
New Lib Dem defection imminent?
Antoinette Sandbach has joined the Lib Dems
Sandbach: “Our country deserves so much better than Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. I can’t wait to get to work, win this election and then deliver for my constituents and our country.”
Read 4 tweets
Profile picture
Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Stephen Barclay is up in the Commons answering an UQ on NI-GB checks under the Brexit deal

Barclay says there'll be "minimal targeted interventions" on goods heading west to east

An MP yells "checks!"
Priti Patel has submitted to the Home Affairs Select Committee a clarification on goods heading from NI to GB

She says west to east trade will be "unfettered" with no "checks" — but there'll be a "minimal administrative process" on some goods

Same line used by Downing St yday
Barclay: each NI-GB exit summary declaration will be a "single form" submitted "electronically" and won't require "physical checks"

True, but someone will need to check them...

Key point: As @denisstaunton & others have said, UK and EU may well agree to waive these declarations
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Boris Johnson says "there'll be no checks between Northern Ireland and GB" under the terms of the Brexit deal, which simply isn't true
Barclay told Lords that goods heading west to east would require exit summary declarations

HMG's impact assessment said goods going the other way would need import declarations and Entry Summary Declarations

These may well end up being "light touch" — but they're still checks
Downing Street says NI-GB exit summary declarations are not checks but "minimal administrative processes"

But as @JP_Biz et al point out, these forms, even if filled out and submitted electronically, will need to be checked
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Simon Bye 🎪🔶
@UB5simon
#TacticalVoting is a good plan, and it was promoted heavily it before the 2017 GE. Here are two seats that the #Conservatives still won. In #RichmondPark, where #Labour are never going to win, they took 5773 votes. Zac Goldsmith won with a majority of 45.
In Hastings and Rye, The LibDems, who were never going to win, took 1885 votes. Amber Rudd won by 346 votes. Had the #LibDems and #Labour stood aside appropriately in these two seats, and told its supporters who to support, there would have probably been more favourable results.
My concern is that, like in 2017, the #TacticalVoting message won't reach everybody. It is a shame that at least one of these parties won't entertain any concept of not standing in some constituencies.
Read 9 tweets
Profile picture
Lena Komileva
@komileva
A UK Brexit Update: A Prime Minister of Opposition

If you are here, then Congratulations! This is all the summary on Boris Johnson's new UK government that you’ll need to connect the dots on the outlook for Brexit from an observer market practitioner perspective.

Enjoy! 1/
The UK has a new kind of government - A Government of Opposition:
Despite the logic of economists, parliamentary observers and pollsters, a no-deal Brexit is the most likely government policy. This remains, as we've consistently argued for the past 3yrs, the default scenario. 2/
How did we get here?
The EU Referendum on 23/06/16- a day of torrential rain, flash floods & thunderstorms that caused transportation chaos across the UK, leaving thousands stranded & unable to vote– delivered a Leave result, w/ a margin of 2.73% (1.3m votes) of the electorate 3/
Read 26 tweets
Profile picture
Electoral Reform Society
@electoralreform
Press release: Election experts say political system is at breaking point as voters ‘shop around’ more than ever electoral-reform.org.uk/latest-news-an…
Three recent national polls show the lowest ever joint Labour and Conservative vote shares on record (YouGov: 38%; Opinium: 39%; Deltapoll: 46%), while an Opinium poll is the first ever to show five parties reach double figures in support, with the Greens 5th on 11%
Three consecutive polls published over the weekend have shown three different parties in first place (Lib Dem, Brexit and Labour) – the first time this has happened since 1986
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Maureen Fitzsimmons
@mojos55
Does it occur to people that #Tory #Conservativ Cuts are directly targeted towards ..
Aged, Unemployed, Single parents ,Low paid , Sick & Disabled people , & CHILDREN ?
Can you see a pattern emerge ? All the Vulnerable people especially in #Labour run areas...?
the Cuts have been imposed even more severely ...
The only conclusion is ..

If you do not Work ? The #Tories will do all in their power to Kill people...Including CHILDREN )

I repeat they will actively work towards vulnerable people's demise & Death !
The language from the #Conservatives #Tories ?
They actually call people ...non productive & Useless Eaters ! I repeat ...Useless Eaters ...

If I was wrong & this was only a few top #Tories who were knowingly pushing people to Starvation ,Suicide & Death with their #Cuts
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Andrew Wainwright
@wainwra
Have you heard of #Hotelling’s Law? In a two party system, it says that you get most votes by minimising the political distance between the parties. It’s worked well in the past, but it’s about to bring an end to both #Labour and the #Tory party. 1/n
uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id…
Hotelling’s law worked really well for Tony #Blair. #Thatcher had moved the Tory party to the right, so #NewLabour had an opportunity to increase its vote share by also moving rightwards. 2/n
Politics had shifted. Both parties held broadly similar policies. Blair’s political stance, although to the left of Thatcher’s, was much further right than any Labour leader previously (or since). Labour was able to capture ground that the Tories had left unguarded. 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Profile picture
Piers
@PiersJH
1/6 - I was sent this link by a person who claims to be a #Labour supporter but not #antisemitic (can't verify if political affiliation is true) with "proof" about a conspiracy involving the #Rothschild family, the #Freemasons, all Jews in North London (lol)...
2/6 - ... corrupt MPs, corrupt Lords, corrupt #royalty, pillaging of #Africa's resources, #war mongering, tax evasion, weapons smuggling, drugs smuggling and a global #Ponzi scheme - all in one "investigation". I was intrigued and decided to read the entire article...
3/6 - ... and found an antisemite's wet dream in semi-coherent passages. The basic plot of this work of badly-written fiction is that the Rothschild family have funded ALL wars for centuries, stealing money from the public by using virtual office addresses (with other Jews)...
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

#wage #BBC #vegan #Tory #Serbia #Labour #LT #debt #buzz #growth #LabourParty #Brexit #externalities #BoJo #vaccination #EuropeanElections2019 #antisemitic #Rothschild #corruption #austerity #Conservatives #radiesthésie #GDP #transfers #Madness
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!