Press release: Election experts say political system is at breaking point as voters ‘shop around’ more than ever…
Three recent national polls show the lowest ever joint Labour and Conservative vote shares on record (YouGov: 38%; Opinium: 39%; Deltapoll: 46%), while an Opinium poll is the first ever to show five parties reach double figures in support, with the Greens 5th on 11%
Three consecutive polls published over the weekend have shown three different parties in first place (Lib Dem, Brexit and Labour) – the first time this has happened since 1986
Westminster and voters remain hampered by a binary, out-dated voting system, with small changes in support likely to mean the difference between parties winning dozens or seats and none at the next election, given the state of electoral fragmentation and ‘vote splitting’
Support for the two ‘main’ parties is at record lows – one poll puts Labour and the Conservatives in third and fourth place with less than 40% of the vote. The clear, long-term trend is that politics is moving away from two 'main' parties
Since FPTP benefits to the two biggest parties - whichever they are - the next election is likely to produce highly disproportionate results. Alternatively, voters may feel forced to vote 'tactically' for their second/third preferences
The results of the next General Election will be a total lottery and are likely to be the most volatile in history given Westminster's decrepit Victorian voting system
It is time for Westminster to join Scotland, Wales and local elections in Northern Ireland and Ireland in introducing a ‘fair, proportional voting system’ where seats in Parliament accurately match how people vote
Darren Hughes, Chief Executive, Electoral Reform Society said: “We are seeing a fundamental shift in our politics, with voters are turning away from the two main parties in record numbers and supporting a wider range of parties than ever before."
.@darrenhughesnz: “We now find ourselves a multi-party democracy trapped in a two-party system – a system that is breaking at the seams as our fragmented politics tries to find space for representation."
Professor Sir John Curtice: “Britain’s traditional two-party system is facing its biggest challenge yet in the wake of the Brexit impasse. If that challenge persists it would seem inevitable that there will renewed debate about the merits of the FPTP electoral system"
Martin Baxter of @ElectCalculus said: “Under First Past the Post, relatively small numbers of votes moving can change significant numbers of seats...You’ve got five [large] parties – they can’t all get a majority."
Martin Baxter of @ElectCalculus: “The electoral system is designed to favour the two largest parties. Electoral Calculus figures reflect this, with the Brexit Party and Labour party predicted to get many more seats than the others."
.@ElectCalculus: “There’s a realignment going on, with British politics turning 90 degrees. Politics was previously dominated by the economic axis – that has now switched to the Brexit axis."
Electoral Calculus: "Voters are moving towards parties with a clear position on the [Leave/Remain] axis. That makes things appear volatile. Maybe this is all a temporary thing – but one cannot say with confidence this has to return to the status quo."
MPs debate the Parliamentary Restoration and Renewal Bill today - Westminster's structures are crumbling in every sense of the word
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