Tehran has now unveiled its "fourth step" in downgrading JCPOA compliance, injecting uranium hexafluoride gas into the centrifuges at Fordow. Here's why it matters [Thread]
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2/ In May, Tehran announced it would start incremental steps reducing its adherence to the 2015 nuclear deal. The latest move follows on breaches of the agreement's 300kg and 3.67 enrichment uranium limits as well as R&D restrictions.
3/ Timing of these moves was not random. Rather, came on heels of late April US decision to withdrawal all of its sanctions waivers on Iranian oil exports. An Iranian official said "we are in a full-fledged economic war... the US can't strangulate us and expect us to do nothing".
4/ Worth recalling that in November last year, @SecPompeo was asked if US max pressure might push Iran into breaching JCPOA in response. His take (@1.36): “we’re confident that the Iranians will not make that decision”.
5/ As such, the Trump administration, who was concerned about the sunsets on Iran’s nuclear restrictions, has in practice moved forward the deadline for testing advanced IR-6 centrifuges from 2026 to today and resumption of enrichment activities at Fordow from 2031 to 2019.
6/ For Iran, these breaches serve 3 purposes: jolt P4+1 into relieving sanctions burden; raise the costs & deter US from adding more sanctions; and respond against domestic criticism that Rouhani admin had been too passive in face of siege.
7/ Flip side to nuclear brinkmanship is regional environment, where tensions skyrocketed over the summer after series of incidents such as Fujairah attacks, downing of US drone, & 14 Sep Aramco incident. A single spark could set the entire region on fire. ]
8/ While US touts success of "max pressure" strategy - and has been able to inflict significant harm on Iranian economy - Tehran has neither conceded nor collapsed. Rather than blunting its capabilities, US coercive approach has only sharpened willingness to provoke. 
9/ Sense in Tehran seems to be that nuclear noncompliance and regional escalation more fruitful than previous "strategic patience" approach: mediation efforts increased, some regional rivals looking to de-escalate, and US/allies refrained from direct military response.
10/ But that's a dangerous gamble: future incidents may lead to mil response, & upping ante on JCPOA breaches could cross red lines leading E3 to trigger dispute resolution mechanism, UN sanctions snapback & possible collapse of the deal. There is way out:
11/11 Working towards a ceasefire deal along the lines that Macron suggested in Biarritz remains best way out of a dangerous downward spiral. Working towards a prisoner swap could also open a sorely-needed communication channel. Full commentary at crisisgroup.org/middle-east-no…
