Here's why national polling averages may be underrepresenting the LibDem swing...
Their "Stop Brexit" is likely to have gone down like a lead balloon in strong Leave areas, while being lapped up in strong Remain areas.
The following table illustrates this effect perfectly.
Their "Stop Brexit" is likely to have gone down like a lead balloon in strong Leave areas, while being lapped up in strong Remain areas.
The following table illustrates this effect perfectly.
The first column illustrates their vote before they leapt into full throated "Stop Brexit" / "B*llocks to Brexit" mode. Second column could well represent where they are now. Area A (strong Leave) hates them. Area B (middling) is a bit dubious. Area C (strong Remain) loves them.
Final column is what a national average "20% support" figure tells us if you don't adjust it for each constituency i.e. it tells us nothing whatsoever.
[NOTE: the figures I used aren't representative of any particular constituency. I used them to illustrate the polling problem.]
[NOTE: the figures I used aren't representative of any particular constituency. I used them to illustrate the polling problem.]
