Thread by @pmdfoster

So Prof Winters of ⁦@uk_tpo⁩ calculates Joint Cmme will tariffs on 60% of goods entering NI from GB - ⁦@JP_Biz⁩ reports; tho some may get rebates if U.K. can make system work. 1/ bbc.com/news/uk-northe…

And (read to end of story) key point is that zero-tariff/quota FTA for EU-UK doesn’t end the issue. Since if U.K. does deals with other countries on different rates (day lower tariffs on eggs from US/Ukraine) the border will need to control for that. Standards too. /2

And since divergence is the point of @BorisJohnson #brexit it seems a reasonable presumption that’s going to be the case.

That means checks/delays and cost for supply chains in NI for many businesses, per @MichaelAodhan working on margins that can’t support that. /3

Story coming tomorrow on more of this - but the idea that passing WAB “gets #brexit done” is so daft I still can’t believe it’s a thing; and a thing apparently that is working. #brexit only most beginning, if it does ever begin! 4/ends