Thread by @GoodwinMJ

Here's an unpopular view
Whatever happens tomorrow Boris Johnson has had a good campaign. He's led his party back to 43% by cannibalising the Brexit Party & consolidating the Leave vote, which he & Cummings set out to do. He also held 18% of Remainers along the way #ge2019

Under Johnson, the Conservatives have led in every single poll since MPs voted to hold the election back in October. Theresa May did not do this in 2017. Nor Cameron in 2015. Nor Cameron in 2010. The last person who managed this was Blair in 2005.

The polls might all be wrong but given the context of this election the Conservative Party's dominance is still striking. Of the 65 polls during the campaign they have held double digit leads in 43 of them.

Meanwhile, an opposition Labour Party has not come within 6 points of an incumbent party that has been in office for nearly a decade

-against a backdrop of austerity, an economic squeeze, a divisive Brexit debate, housing crisis & sharp increase in salience of climate change

At the start of the campaign...

Only 55% of 2017 conservatives were still loyal to the party
That is now 85%

34% had defected to Nigel Farage
That has been squeezed to 4%

And only 34% of Leavers were Tory
That is now over 70%

#ge2019

Johnson could still 'lose' of course but there's no doubt his party is far stronger than when he found it. He was never going to win back Remainia at this election but he will have to pivot back if he wins it. Short term dilemma is being met; long term dilemma still to come.