Thread by @shaunjlawson

THREAD: Progressive alliance. I've mentioned this a few times over the last few days - and first did so in 2015. I am quite convinced it is the way to go. The UK needs plural, representative, fair, democratic politics - and under FPTP, it ain't getting it.

Because of FPTP, what it gets instead is:

- Divisive, destructive policy
- Unrepresentative government
- Rotten boroughs galore, leading to corruption and the expenses scandal
- A Union that is breaking apart
- A supposed mandate for hard Brexit which isn't one at all

And it also gets so-called progressive parties ripping each other to shreds and letting the Tory in again and again and again. This year, most hideously of all in Kensington. It's an absolute disgrace.

So what I've done is go through all 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales (Northern Irish politics is separate and I've treated it as such). And I've calculated what the results would have been had LAB, LD, SNP, PC and GRN combined their vote, against CON, BRX & UKIP.

The first thing to say is this calculation is not perfect. Obviously some Labour voters would've gone Tory or Brexit had Labour been part of a progressive alliance. But by the same token, plenty of Tories would probably have gone progressive instead, especially for a Lib Dem type

Johnson noticeably held on to huge numbers of Tory Remainers, essentially because of their fear of Corbyn. In a straight Tory v Progressive battle, just one Tory v one anti-Tory, I think a good number of them would probably have switched.

My plan would involve whoever is Labour leader immediately approaching the SNP, Lib Dems and Greens, and offering the former a 2nd Scottish referendum as well as promising to implement full PR if elected.

Then whoever is best placed - whether they're the sitting MP, or came 2nd to the Tories this year - would fight that seat for the progressive alliance, which would formally join together and have its own conference ahead of the election... for one election only.

After the election, if it won, PR would be implemented: at which point, all parties would return to normal. And in all likelihood, in some cases at least, split: with new parties emerging. That would be the end of the tyranny of the minority in the UK.

Anyway, below, I'm setting out what the bare numbers say right now. Even though under the scenario which I very strongly propose, the numbers would be different, because the campaign would be fought totally differently on every conceivable level.

First, the following seats would've gone from Tory to a Labour progressive: 31 in total. Those I've asterisked are those where the outcome isn't 100% clear, usually because of the role played by local independent candidates. Under my scenario, I'd hope they would step aside.

Aberconwy
Altrincham and Sale West
Bolton North East
Bridgend
Broxtowe
Bury North
Bury South*
Chingford and Woodford Green
Chipping Barnet
Clwyd South
Delyn
Derby North*
Dewsbury
Durham North West*
Filton and Bradley Stoke
Gedling
Hastings and Rye*
Hendon
High Peak

(cont)

Kensington
Milton Keynes North
Pudsey*
Reading West
Rushcliffe
Southport
Truro and Falmouth
Warrington South
Watford
Wrexham
Wycombe
Ynys Mon

Second, the following seats would've gone from Tory to an SNP progressive: 5 in total.

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Dumfries and Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Moray

Third, the following seats would've gone from Tory to a Lib Dem progressive: 16 in total.

Cambridgeshire South
Carshalton and Wallington
Cheadle
Chelsea and Fulham
Cheltenham
Cities of London and Westminster
Esher and Walton*
Finchley and Golders Green
Guildford*

(cont)

Hazel Grove
Hitchin and Harpenden
Lewes
St Ives
Wimbledon
Winchester
Wokingham

Then, there's Hertfordshire South West. Had David Gauke fought this seat as part of a progressive alliance (which is, of course, very strongly open to question), he'd have won. He's the one independent progressive who would've won in such a scenario.

However, there is a flipside. If, to fight a progressive alliance, the Tories, the Brexit Party and/or UKIP had joined forces and only fielded one candidate, the following seats would've moved from Labour to Tory: 15 in total.

Barnsley Central
Barnsley East
Batley and Spen
Dagenham and Rainham
Doncaster Central
Doncaster North
Hartlepool
Hemsworth*
Houghton and Sunderland South
Hull East
Hull West and Hessle
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
Rotherham*
Stockton North
Wentworth and Dearne

Make a note of these 15 seats. If Labour's current direction of travel continues, they're the most vulnerable to the Tories next time. As it is, in the above scenario, Yvette Cooper would've lost. As would Ed Miliband.

But against that, Dominic Raab would've lost. So would John Redwood. Boris Johnson's seat would be genuinely in play. Jacob Rees-Mogg's would be on an absolute knife-edge. And Sutton and Cheam would've been decided by, get this... just 3 votes.

All this is despite a supposedly crushing Tory mandate, after a unique election dominated by one issue which will never dominate it again, and in which the opposition had the most unpopular leader on record. I don't like that he was unpopular - I love the guy - but he was.

Oops! Almost forgot. Also out would be the former Secretary of State for Manslaughter, Iain Duncan Smith.

In these completely unique circumstances, in which FPTP forced Labour to try and look both ways at once, and end up getting knocked down on both sides, this is what the parliamentary numbers would look like now:

(Comparisons with the actual seat figures):

Conservatives 327
Labour 219
SNP 53
Lib Dems 27
DUP 8
Sinn Fein 7
Plaid Cymru 4
SDLP 2
Alliance 1
Independent 1
Speaker 1

A Tory majority of... 4.

Though in fairness to them, with Sinn Fein not taking their seats and the Speaker not voting, it'd be a working majority of 12... with the DUP supporting them on all issues not related to Brexit.

It's a measure of how bent this system already is that the Tories would have a majority of 4 despite the national share of the vote (excluding Northern Ireland) looking like this:

CON + BRX + UKIP = 45.7%

LAB + LD + SNP + PC + GRN = 50.8%

Isn't that just completely absurd?

Well folks, here's the thing. Next time round, the boundaries will have been rigged even more. There'll be voter ID too. Anyone who thinks that by itself, Labour can somehow turn that around with the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru eating into it is away with the fairies.

But here's something else. Something rather more encouraging. As I sat going through all the seats, what I noticed was just how many would suddenly be completely in play and very close if there was just one anti-Tory up against a Tory. What would result from that?

Because there'd suddenly be a point in voting, lots more people would vote. Ask yourself: it you've lived in a safe seat for decades, why would you bother? But if the margin was suddenly 10 points, 5 points or less, that's when you would.

That Tory majority, incidentally, is thanks to winning by 3 votes in Sutton and Cheam, 55 votes in Woking. It's that close already - after an election which was a perfect Tory storm. That's not going to happen again.

And if you gave the SNP the carrot of a second independence vote, and the Lib Dems and Greens the carrot of proportional representation, OF COURSE they'd come on board. It's a total no-brainer. Look how many seats the LDs would've won under this scenario in any case.

This progressive alliance would have the chance, if elected, to genuinely change Britain... for good. Forever. Never again would we have a right wing government implementing right wing policies unless the right bloc achieved more than 50% of the vote.

If they managed that, fair enough. If they didn't, tough.

Of course, were a Labour leader to do this, they'd face all sorts of scepticism and ridicule from the media... and maybe an initial public backlash as a result. Which is where all parties would need to work together.

They'd work together on messaging. They'd work together on communicating why this is necessary. They'd work together on explaining that at present, Britain is just not a genuine democracy.

And they'd put together such an exciting platform that they'd take people with them.

This is the bold thing to do. The visionary thing to do. And frankly, the ONLY thing to do. I would vote for any Labour leadership candidate who proposes this. If none do, I'll keep proposing it and keep proposing it until it finally happens... because happen, it must.

cc: @labourlewis @CarolineLucas @Neal_Compass @AnthonyBarnett

This is what open, progressive politics should look like. And woe betide all progressive parties if they don't join together and do this.

@labourlewis @CarolineLucas @Neal_Compass @AnthonyBarnett PS. Oh yes, one other thing. Labour has not won a proper majority under a leader not named Tony Blair since 1966. It is an absolute disgrace that it isn't advocating PR already. More than that, it's a chronic act of self-harm, which betrays all those it is supposed to stand for.

@labourlewis @CarolineLucas @Neal_Compass @AnthonyBarnett cc: @paulmasonnews

@labourlewis @CarolineLucas @Neal_Compass @AnthonyBarnett @paulmasonnews cc @electoralreform

@labourlewis @CarolineLucas @Neal_Compass @AnthonyBarnett @paulmasonnews @electoralreform And HUGE apologies to Caroline Lucas, MP for the People's Republic of Brighton Pavilion, for somehow omitting her from the list of numbers above. It should of course say 'Green 1' too. Very embarrassed by that error!