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THREAD: Why Labour lost (from "After Corbynism"). 1/ Fact: Labour lost twice as many voters to Remain parties as to the Tories. It lost them quickly (April-June). It lost them because Corbyn and NEC dithered over Second Referendum/Remain...

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2/ So it wasn't the "Remainer left" who tanked Labour's poll average from 32 to 22 in six weeks. But it was the internationalist left who - for four months - had to fight to get to the position that allowed the squeeze on Libdem votes...
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3/ Did anyone warn that trying to appease small-town elderly voters on Brexit was a no-win, and urge Corbyn to talk about crime, defence, national security? See picture:

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4/ The September conference compromise - of Second Referendum but "wait and see" over Remain was accepted by the left. It allowed us to squeeze the Libdems by 10 points in a month. It's authors were the people trying to repudiate the pro-PV line now...
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5/ So we lost, according to Datapraxis, up to 28 seats because of the 1.1 million Labour -> Libdem swing, which was bigger than the switch from Lab -> Tory. That's over half the seats we lost. But... what caused so many Lab voters in Leave areas to switch?
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6/ It's not a question of "was it Brexit or was it Corbyn"? The #1 issue by a mile identified by Datapraxis is negativity over Corbyn Leave seats - primarily over national security. Did Corbyn/LOTO do a single thing to counter this negativity during 2019?
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7/ Of course 2/3 of the negativity is media propaganda, including disgraceful breaches of impartiality by BBC. But the IHRA fiasco, the dire response to Skripal were both avoidable. But here's how the Corbyn/Brexit factors interact... (next tweet)
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8/ Here's the polling research that TSSA/HNH showed Corbyn in January. We expected 36% of working class Leave voters to be turned off by Brexit. In the 800k switched - but they were boosted by 300k Labour Remain voters who did not trust Corbyn...
9/ While the TSSA/HNH polling on Brexit showed 1/3 small-town older workers who voted Leave might switch, it never factored in the Corbyn effect. Here's the Datapraxis summary:
10/ As long as the Tories had a crap leader, divided and were committed to soft Brexit they could not achieve, the PV+"wait and see" position worked. With Johnson in power we should have changed leader, or drafted in a collegiate team. But by now LOTO a Lexiteer bunker...
11/ So the election half lost the moment the NEC nixed PV in April, and it got worse the moment the Lexiteers adopted a position they didn't agree with (PV+"wait and see") and reputation ally destroyed the Conference over Watson (again an NEC move)... However.
12/ A strong campaign focused in the North/Midlands could have limited the damage. Murphy, Lavery and above all Beckett kept saying the polls were "propaganda" and we should target offensive seats..
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13/ Then, in a panic they switched to defending the North. Did they talk about crime, police, national security? Did they outline the Labour Brexit deal in detail? Did they vector tons of activists to defend these seats? Not until too late....
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14/ Learning the lessons requires surveying the evidence. Had I known the anti-Corbyn stuff would be a force multiplier, sending 300k Labour Remainers to the Tories, the conclusion in May would have been: switch leaders. This has implications going forward...
15/ So the Lexiteers and LOTO insiders blaming Starmer/Thornberry/Lewis etc are wrong. It was their defeat: they ignored polls, they imposed the pro-PV line without any clear Remain/Leave adjunct, they ignored professional advice, they refused to take national security seriously.
16/ Incidentally Lisa Nandy had a much clearer line: only if Labour delivered Brexit in the commons and "took credit for it" would we have stemmed the losses in Leave areas. She was right - but we could never do that and win an election...
17/ Here's why this matters for 2024. Unless we realise that stuff like the Skripal fiasco is a vote-killer in working class communities, and that crime, foreign policy etc actually resonate there, we'll never have a conversation with these communities.
18/18 - for where we go next read the pamphlet. We need a left leader who can learn the lessons and build a broader coalition, within and outside the party. ENDS

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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
Strange article in Guardian by @owenhatherley goves the impression I am calling for Milne, Murphy etc to be expelled from Labour post-election. I called for them to be removed as advisers in May. I was right (see election result)... Image
Now on the use of "Stalinist" -if someone thinks the USSR was a great place and tends to parrot Kremlin disinformation, or wears a Stalin badge, or runs a Facebook page making light of the Gulag... I think Stalinist is a good description...
... and as I warned in May: British Stalinism has an unenviable record - it destroys every movement it ever gains control of. Now for the word "Trotskyist"... I was a Trotskyist in the 80s/90s but that's not the reason I opposed Brexit!...
Read 6 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
THREAD: Here's my checklist for judging the Labour leadership candidates. 1/ They have to be from the left - there can be no going back to free market authoritarian politics... (full list below)
2/ They voted against Brexit. Brexit is an attack on the working class, the welfare state and ethnic minorities. I want some one who consistently understood this, anyone saying Lexiteers were right doesn't get my vote...
3/ Accepts Brexit will happen and we have to move on... the size of the defeat means "rejoining" is not a left project. We need to defend European values, trade orientation, common standards and security co-operation - but we can't become the "rejoin" party...
Read 22 tweets
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Paul Mason
@paulmasonnews
As the recriminations merge with the Labour leadership contest, let's start with evidence: this report from @paulhilder should be the jump-off point dataprax.is/tory-landslide…
2/ it shows that Labour lost many more voters to Remain parties than the Tories; and of those that went Tory, 300k were Remainers who hated Corbyn... completely at odds with McCluskey/LOTO line dataprax.is/tory-landslide…
3/ The stark conclusion going forward is what I've been saying for months - "class-vs-class" nostalgia doesn't work in the class dynamics of failed neoliberalism: we need an alliance of the centre and the left. dataprax.is/tory-landslide…
Read 5 tweets

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Amil Khan
@Londonstani
As a former journalist who just worked on progressive campaigns during this election; there are a couple of basic truths that it is important for UK progressives to accept otherwise we will condemn ourselves to an unending spiral of failure and bitterness. #thread
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stefano_fait
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#Thread

1.
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I suspect this is by design.
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She will be one of the leaders.
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Saiswaroopa
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#Thread #Kurukshetra #Analytics #Mahabharata
Started a fun project of mine today. Recording the duels of Kurukshetra war in an excel sheet in anticipation of some interesting pattern. Watch this space for interesting tidbits. Full exercise may take quite a while
Interesting Results! #Kurukshatra #Analytics. So many duels without a declared result on Day One
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Adam Sykes
@AdamSykesWirral
Important result that Tories lost twice as many seats to #Remain parties than #BrexitParty. BXP swapped for 23 UKIP and gained extra 5 to get 28. Tories lost 15 seats - 5 to BXP and 10 to Remain.
#EUelections2019 #EP2019
Conservative MPs must be aware that it's too late for new members to join & vote in #ToryLeadershipContest. However, if a general election is coming, there will probably be time to take part in selections/deselections of MP. This may be by #Remain voters.
#EUelections2019
6M plus signed a petition to revoke Article 50. If 2.5% of them joined the Conservatives, then they would be likely bigger than the current membership. Won't be enough time for #ToryLeadership in the #ToryLeadershipContest but possibly enough time before any General Election.
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Raman Ghavami
@Raman_Ghavami
#Thread
Be very careful about what you read about #AhvazAttack.
There are many fake news, unconfirmed reports, fabricated photos and photos taken for propaganda use.
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Nitin Sethi
@nit_set
#Thread on #NPAs. Stay with me.

RBI revealed this in an RTI: At the end of March 2018, a record high 7,990 borrowers of above Rs 5 crore had not repaid a whopping Rs 3.71 lakh crore to banks for 1-30 days after due date. That is a four-year high record of early defaulters! 1/n
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