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"If you stopped NHS nurses leaving you would end up with more NHS nurses" ... not quite.

Let us say ...
0 new nurses.
27k leave per year.
17k persuaded to stay (net loss 10k)
280k nurses in the NHS.

On this basis, you would have 0 nurses in the NHS by 2050 ...
... when you say you're going to increase the number of FTE (full time equivalent) nurses by 50k then you should be talking about increasing 280k FTE nurses to 330k FTE nurses.

Going from 280k to 310k FTE nurses is not a 50k increase despite claims you've prevented 20k leaving.
From the example above ... going from 280k FTE nurses to 0k FTE nurses (-10k net loss x 28) by 2050 is not an increase of 306k FTE nurses (17k persuaded to stay x 28).

The chutzpah of this Gov is ... strong.
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More from @swardley see all

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Simon Wardley #Labour #EEA #Exit #Attlee #Disraeli
@swardley
A weird generalisation that I've become conscious of many times with maps over the years.

Humanities students tend to ask me how do I know if the map is right?

Physicists / Engineering students tend to ask how to make a better map?
I don't know if it's just chance or something I noted and then repeatedly reinforced through confirmation bias or there is some fundamental difference between how we teach the subjects i.e. a desire to find a truth rather than a less imperfect model.
It also occurs in a slightly different setting when people tell me that "the map is not the territory".

This is often said as a negative but "the map is not the territory" is fundamental to the power of maps. They are an imperfect representation of something.
Read 12 tweets
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Simon Wardley #Labour #EEA #Exit #Attlee #Disraeli
@swardley
Reading the latest from @OdysseanProject - dominiccummings.com/2020/01/02/two… ... references to Boyd & Agent based models are encouraging .. but Graham and Thiel are less so ...
... also the idea of creating deep expertise to solve fundamental issues of communication and lack of situational awareness are ... well, flawed. It's what is also behind so many project fiascos. However, in general more encouraging than not but little different from 2010.
Anyway, the clock is ticking. They have the hundred days to get plans in place and moving before the system itself starts to re-assert itself and resists.

Still, lots of good shout-outs ... I particularly like the one to DynamicLand.
Read 8 tweets
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Simon Wardley #Labour #EEA #Exit #Attlee #Disraeli
@swardley
X : Thoughts on number of hours of work needed per week?
Me : Bizarre question. Depends upon so many things, some of which you can't anticipate. Why are you asking?
X : Rough hours to be successful?
Me : Successful in what? Define success? Define work? Also starting conditions.
Me : This is all context specific and has perspective mixed in.
X : How?
Me : A couple I know always grumble about being overworked and lack of success. They earn about $500k between them and define work to include "going to lunches", "beauty treatments" and "time in gym".
... their "positions" are almost entirely due to the family they were born into. Others would not unreasonably consider them unbelievably lucky (or even spoilt) and their idea of work is what some would call a holiday.
Read 5 tweets

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CON SINOV
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#DigitalHealth Futurist 👨‍💻
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Online access to my GP records - what an exciting concept. Let's see how it works. #NHS #digitalhealth
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Chris from amber electric
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Wanted to share some stories about what went down for amber customers with wholesale prices during the wild price spikes on Jan 24th.

Will have to stay a little vague as we are still small and I don’t want to accidentally share any potentially identifying information /thread
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Matthew Sweet
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As someone who’s written >1k blog posts I can attest to what @vgr said in his Breaking Smart Q&A:
“Quantity has a quality all its own as Lenin said. The sheer volume of your work is what works as a signal of weirdness, because anyone can be do a one-off weird thing but only volume can signal a consistently weird production sensibility that will inspire people betting on you.”
“The energy evident in a body of work is the most honest signal about it that makes people trust you to do things for them.”

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Cameron Murray
@DrCameronMurray
Labor's plan to 'build thousands of new homes' seems to involve building exactly zero homes and looks just like an off-the-plan investor subsidy where most of the money will end up in landlord pockets.
smh.com.au/politics/feder…
The subsidy of $8,500 per year is way higher than the promised 20% rent discount at the median rent of $462pw, which is only $4,800pa. At this median rental price, $3,700 of the subsidy will go straight to landlord pockets (or 44% of it), and the rest to tenants. (2/n)
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Beatrice Tory #FBPE #ABTV
@PoliticsTosser
5th July 2018 will be the 70th birthday of our beloved #NHS.

This THREAD argues that it is in severe danger under this #Toryshambles government, with #Brexit posing an imminent & particularly invidious threat.

To #SaveOurNHS we must work tirelessly together to #StopBrexit.
1/ Today's devolved #NHS is a complex federation of tens of 000s of orgs employing some 1.7m workers. It's combined annual budget is just shy of £150bn. It handles, overwhelmingly successfully, almost a million patients daily.

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