Prompted by @KevC_Derby and @IAmMardikins... and by way of a follow-up to this thread, some thoughts on Johnson's possible 2020 Brexit moves. Thread. 1/9
It looks likely that Johnson will only give himself 2020 to reach the future relationship deal with the EU. He will face strong pressure to move both towards a 'soft' (less disruptive) Brexit, and towards a much harder 'bare bones' FTA agreement (or no deal). 2/9
Both destinations seem plausible to me. The opposition, and business, will push him towards a 'soft' Brexit, with high alignment with the EU, and a customs union. Something perhaps rather like Theresa May's UK-wide backstop. 3/9
While free movement would end, and the UK would be outside the EU's single market, close relations with the EU would be maintained. The internal pressure on the UK's union would ease. And, negative economic effects would likely be mitigated. 4/9
But other voices, within his Party, his Cabinet and his leadership team, will be urging him to sever ties with the EU much more dramatically, deliver a 'true Brexit', and reshape the regulatory regime. 5/9
The next election is a long way away. The economic pain may only be short-lived. It may convincingly be blamed on others. Just think of the opportunities which lie ahead... 6/9
Johnson can very likely get Brexit done either way; both versions could be agreed within his Party, and in Parliament. There is little the opposition, or the rival Tory factions, can do now. 7/9
It will be Johnson's choice. 8/9
Everything we have seen from him as PM, and in the campaign, suggests that he will opt for a hard, disruptive, Brexit outcome. Post the GE win, he may change tack... but I wouldn't count on it. 9/9
