Thread
Did some reading on Iranian history to get perspective on current conflict.
It emerges that unlike popular perception Iran is not fighting to defend Shia Islam but its current tensions with the west has its roots all the way back in 1891 starting with colonial Britain.
Did some reading on Iranian history to get perspective on current conflict.
It emerges that unlike popular perception Iran is not fighting to defend Shia Islam but its current tensions with the west has its roots all the way back in 1891 starting with colonial Britain.
Iran had weak foreign backed Shahs who did what foreign powers told them too.
In 1890 Nasir al-Din Shah granted concessions to the British to be sole growers and exporters of tobacco in Iran impacting 200,000 Iranians.
Protests backed by influential clergy led to its withdrawal.
In 1890 Nasir al-Din Shah granted concessions to the British to be sole growers and exporters of tobacco in Iran impacting 200,000 Iranians.
Protests backed by influential clergy led to its withdrawal.
Anglo-Persian Oil Company owned by British had monopoly on Iranian oil from 1901. Was Britain's most profitable company but Iranians did not see money. In 1952 elected Iran PM Mosaddegh nationalized it. Brits sent warships, put sanctions & removed him with a coup with CIA help.
The coup in 1953 not only removed the popular PM Mosaddegh seen as a hero by his people but it also installed back on the throne Mohammad Reza Pahlavi Shah who functioned from then as an effective puppet of the Americans and British.
Iranians never accepted him as legitimate.
Iranians never accepted him as legitimate.
Did not help that the Shah & his family was weak, corrupt & ineffective in addition to being seen as puppets of much despised foreign powers.
Shah launched 'White Revolution' of land, nationalisation etc aimed to prevent a 'Red Revolution' but trickle down economics did not work.
Shah launched 'White Revolution' of land, nationalisation etc aimed to prevent a 'Red Revolution' but trickle down economics did not work.
White Revolution instead backfired in other ways. It increased intelligentsia & urban working class who opposed Shah as they did not see benefits & saw a corrupt system where elite benefitted.
Land reforms created independent farmers & landless labourers with no loyalty to Shah.
Land reforms created independent farmers & landless labourers with no loyalty to Shah.
White Revolution which attempted to do a Turkey in Iran with aggressive westernization also backfired with a still largely conservative society.
On other hand as people were alienated from rulers clergy were seen as being close to the people and concerned for them.
On other hand as people were alienated from rulers clergy were seen as being close to the people and concerned for them.
Opposition to Shah was not just Islamists but also many from the urban middle class, intelligentsia, students, left, liberals, marxists, leftist clergy etc.
But none of them had the street power, mass appeal, unity and organisational power of the followers of Shia cleric Khomeini
But none of them had the street power, mass appeal, unity and organisational power of the followers of Shia cleric Khomeini
Khomeini was shrewd enough to work with all of the above minus the Marxists.
This was the start of a full blown revolution and the core concerns were not Islam but Iranian Sovereignty, internal mismanagement by Shah and Co & about preserving Iranian culture and way of life.
This was the start of a full blown revolution and the core concerns were not Islam but Iranian Sovereignty, internal mismanagement by Shah and Co & about preserving Iranian culture and way of life.
Khomeini was also shrewd to not share his real intent of Islamic Clerical rule to preserve opposition unity.
Ironically most effective blow against Shah regime was struck my armed Islamic-Marxist rebels who raided an arms factory & captured and distributed 50,000 machine guns.
Ironically most effective blow against Shah regime was struck my armed Islamic-Marxist rebels who raided an arms factory & captured and distributed 50,000 machine guns.
But before that one final straw for Shah regime was the oil boom of the 1970's. However, Shah family and members grabbed most of this money in billions of dollars.
The oil boom sent inflation through the roof and made inequality worse.
The oil boom sent inflation through the roof and made inequality worse.
Shah towards end tried various liberal concessions including allowing political parties & critical press & rolling back westernization but it was too late.
The final event was a violent crackdown in protests that led to bigger protests.
A demoralized military stayed neutral.
The final event was a violent crackdown in protests that led to bigger protests.
A demoralized military stayed neutral.
Iranian Revolution was successful with 11th Feb 1979 as the fateful day & Khomeini became the Supreme Leader.
From 1979 to 1982 Khomeini turned against other Opposition elements including the moderates and crushed them.
Newspapers critical of theocratic rule were shut down.
From 1979 to 1982 Khomeini turned against other Opposition elements including the moderates and crushed them.
Newspapers critical of theocratic rule were shut down.
November 1979 also saw the hostage crisis as young radicals entered the US Embassy & held 52 US diplomats hostage of 444 days.
This led to a nadir in ties with west but also hugely helped the Khomeini to gain prestige and sideline any moderates and rivals.
This led to a nadir in ties with west but also hugely helped the Khomeini to gain prestige and sideline any moderates and rivals.
One tectonic impact of the Iranian revolution was its impact on mostly neighbouring Sunni Monarchies with significant Shia populations.
Given the popular nature of the Iranian revolution there was real fear of similar uprisings in other parts of the middle east.
Given the popular nature of the Iranian revolution there was real fear of similar uprisings in other parts of the middle east.
An Iraq under Sunni govt of Saddam Hussein armed and supplied by the USA including with Chemical weapons facilities by West launched an invasion of Iran in 1980 leading to 8-yr Iran-Iraq war.
Iran quickly gained back territory & fought much of the war after Iraq offered truce.
Iran quickly gained back territory & fought much of the war after Iraq offered truce.
Right from the 1979 revolution days and hostage crisis Iran and US had hostile ties and sanctions started from then getting tougher by the decade and especially under Bill Clinton.
Given the importance of oil and especially after collapse of the Soviet Union the US cultivated close ties and at times almost client state relations with many Sunni Kingdoms.
Shia Iran which was the biggest in the region and most powerful stuck out like a sore Thumb for the US.
Shia Iran which was the biggest in the region and most powerful stuck out like a sore Thumb for the US.
Shia Iran party out of self-defence and partly to spread its influence created powerful proxies and allies over the decades in Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and with US invasion of Iraq in Iraq and later Yemen too among others.
Along comes George W. Bush (junior) & his axis of evil speech followed by invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Iranian regime were initially spooked by Iraq invasion & even shut down its nuclear weapons programs in 2003 & clandestinely offered to normalise ties but US did not pay attention.
Iranian regime were initially spooked by Iraq invasion & even shut down its nuclear weapons programs in 2003 & clandestinely offered to normalise ties but US did not pay attention.
Over time Iran saw huge opportunity in the removal of the Sunni government in Iraq & worked overtime to arm and strengthen Shia proxy militia and parties who are now dominant in Iraq.
But one impact of Iraq invasion was Iran discussing its nuclear program with the west & IAEA.
But one impact of Iraq invasion was Iran discussing its nuclear program with the west & IAEA.
Iran's talks & cooperation with west & IAEA on its nuclear program which it said was peaceful went up & down.
Obama brought in tougher sanctions on Iran to hurt its economy but left doors open for negotiations.
This led to the Iran nuclear deal also called JCPOA in July 2015.
Obama brought in tougher sanctions on Iran to hurt its economy but left doors open for negotiations.
This led to the Iran nuclear deal also called JCPOA in July 2015.
Under JCPOA Iran would significantly downgrade its nuclear program & open up to thorough inspections in exchange for sanctions relief that was badly hurting its economy.
Trump who made the deal an election issue walked out of it in May 2018 & brought back sanctions in Dec 2018.
Trump who made the deal an election issue walked out of it in May 2018 & brought back sanctions in Dec 2018.
Sanctions hit Iran's oil sale, access to international financial system making payments for imports including medicines more difficult, no airplane parts, manufacturing industry hit, govt budget hit, salary payments hit, food prices higher & massive suffering for its people.
After failure of deal & sanctions Iran has taken up a path of escalation.
It announced increased production of uranium in 2018 & in 2019 it says it exceeded production.
6 oil tankers attacked in Gulf near Iran in 2019 but Iran denies responsibility.
Iran shoots US drone in June.
It announced increased production of uranium in 2018 & in 2019 it says it exceeded production.
6 oil tankers attacked in Gulf near Iran in 2019 but Iran denies responsibility.
Iran shoots US drone in June.
Trump nearly launched strike on Iran but cancels at last minute. More sanctions instead.
In July Iran seizes British tanker near Hormuz. Arrests 17 Iranians for spying for US.
In Dec 27 Iran backed militia kills US contractor and hurts troops in attack in Iraq.
In July Iran seizes British tanker near Hormuz. Arrests 17 Iranians for spying for US.
In Dec 27 Iran backed militia kills US contractor and hurts troops in attack in Iraq.
US hits back on 29th Dec bombing three sites in Iraq linked to the militia killing 25.
On Dec 31st protestors backed by militia attack the US Embassy and burn its outer perimeter.
On 2nd Jan Qasem Soleimani heads of the elite Quds force is killed in US airstrike.
On Dec 31st protestors backed by militia attack the US Embassy and burn its outer perimeter.
On 2nd Jan Qasem Soleimani heads of the elite Quds force is killed in US airstrike.
So to recap some main points.
1. Iran's core struggle not about Islam but about its sovereignty.
2. Deep historical reasons and angst in Iran against west which hugely contributed to 1979 revolution.
3. Iran too big & powerful to fall in line to US unlike pliant Sunni Kingdoms
1. Iran's core struggle not about Islam but about its sovereignty.
2. Deep historical reasons and angst in Iran against west which hugely contributed to 1979 revolution.
3. Iran too big & powerful to fall in line to US unlike pliant Sunni Kingdoms
4. Iran hugely influential in middle east more so after Iraq invasion.
5. 2015 Nuclear deal offered real hope of downgrading Iran's nuclear program and Iran joining the mainstream.
6. Trump & Neo-cons started the escalation by walking out of the deal and reimposing sanctions.
5. 2015 Nuclear deal offered real hope of downgrading Iran's nuclear program and Iran joining the mainstream.
6. Trump & Neo-cons started the escalation by walking out of the deal and reimposing sanctions.
For additional reading a comprehensive profile of Qasem Soleimani and Iran's influence operations in the middle east newyorker.com/magazine/2013/…
As to what Iran will do now nobody can say but here are some factors.
1. In an unpopular regime Soleimani was a popular mythical figure seen to be defending Iranian interests.
2. Regime has faced domestic discontent & so it cannot afford to not react given Soleimani's appeal.
1. In an unpopular regime Soleimani was a popular mythical figure seen to be defending Iranian interests.
2. Regime has faced domestic discontent & so it cannot afford to not react given Soleimani's appeal.
3. Iranian youth and pro-democracy and reform forces will unite behind the country in an external threat or attack like this and so domestic discontent will take a back burner for now.
4. Regime also cannot afford to start a war with the US as the regime wants to survive.
4. Regime also cannot afford to start a war with the US as the regime wants to survive.
5. Trump faces an impeachment proceeding and so he may want to take bigger risks to distract attention without a plan B.
6. Iranian backed militias while being controlled by Iran are also fairly autonomous and all that is required is for one or two of them to go overboard.
6. Iranian backed militias while being controlled by Iran are also fairly autonomous and all that is required is for one or two of them to go overboard.
7. There will be huge pressure on the Iraq Parliament to now show US forces the door.
This move may calm temperatures in Tehran.
8. Iranian response likely through proxies but a direct hit also cannot be ruled out.
9. Watch the strait of Hormuz very closely.
This move may calm temperatures in Tehran.
8. Iranian response likely through proxies but a direct hit also cannot be ruled out.
9. Watch the strait of Hormuz very closely.
10. The biggest playground though will be Iraq as it gives Iran deniability, Iran has a lot of assets there and there are plenty of American targets.
Thread is not to give Iran or Soleimani a moral halo but to place their actions within historical & geo-political context.
If US has committed atrocities in M-E, Iran &proxies are also not clean.
States are never moral in their actions.
But impt to understand what drives them.
If US has committed atrocities in M-E, Iran &proxies are also not clean.
States are never moral in their actions.
But impt to understand what drives them.
And what drives Trump right now is need to assert toughness, take away attention & political power from his impeachment proceedings & ensure re-election.
Bush got re-elected after his Afghanistan & Iraq wars.
Just called Iran chicken.
Wrong strategy.
Bush got re-elected after his Afghanistan & Iraq wars.
Just called Iran chicken.
Wrong strategy.
Becoming clearer that Trump thinks he can win a fight based on the logic that he can fire a few missiles & launch air strikes from US & get away.
Yet to learn lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan & Iraq.
Iran is bigger & has more capacities than all above.
Yet to learn lessons from Vietnam, Afghanistan & Iraq.
Iran is bigger & has more capacities than all above.
It goes without saying that main beneficiaries of a US-Iran war are at global & regional level.
At global level it will be China given that the Iraq war cost the US $ 1.1 Trillion. Such a war will also significantly downgrade US appetite for intervention in S. China sea/others.
At global level it will be China given that the Iraq war cost the US $ 1.1 Trillion. Such a war will also significantly downgrade US appetite for intervention in S. China sea/others.
Russia will benefit in a weakened US but it will also lose a close and powerful ally in the Iranian regime with which it is working in Syria etc.
Regional players like Israel, Saudis, Gulf countries (minus Qatar) and Pakistan will also benefit with a weak Shia Iran after a war.
Regional players like Israel, Saudis, Gulf countries (minus Qatar) and Pakistan will also benefit with a weak Shia Iran after a war.
