Thread by @skepticaliblog

As if California's pension fiscal crisis wasn't bad enough *already*...

Record outmigration & demographic changes mean CA is also rapidly getting older—the dependency ratio (no. over the age of 65 to those of working age) has increased by 85% since 2010
politico.com/states/califor…

To put that stunning figure into context—an 85% jump in the California dependency ratio over just 10 years is much WORSE than anything *ever* in Japan's history😲

And Japan is generally considered the *worst-case* scenario for a rapidly aging population

The policies of California's government—relentlessly hostile to taxpayers and the middle class—resulted in record out-migration in 2018: a massive 38% increase from 2017.

California has been losing its middle class to other states for decades #CalExodus
ocregister.com/2019/10/31/190…

4/ California has thus far avoided a tilt towards population decline via high levels of immigration (both legal & illegal)

However international migrants are no longer enough to cover the number of domestic migrants leaving

CA lost a net 38,000 in 2018
qz.com/1599150/califo…

5/ The only factor now standing between California and population decline is births.

Net migration (domestic + international) has been negative since 2017.

The estimate in Newsom's budget of population decline not occurring until 2060 seems wildly optimistic given these trends

6/ "Escape from L.A." (2020)

Data released last year showed Los Angeles sliding into population decline.

Los Angeles loss of 13,241 residents was the fourth largest in the nation—behind only Cook County/Chicago, and Queens and Kings counties in New York.
cnbc.com/2019/04/25/los…

7/ A prescient 2012 piece by Joel Kotkin predicting this:

"The only ones fit to survive in California are the very rich and those who rely on government spending

In a nutshell, "the state is run for the very rich, the very poor, and the public employees"
wsj.com/articles/SB100…

8/ California was *already* headed towards financial doomsday because of the twin supermassive fiscal black holes of underfunded pensions & unfunded retirement healthcare.

Demography is destiny—and the trends of #CalExodus and a spiking dependency ratio *accelerate* the process.

9/ California cities are now only FIVE YEARS away from fiscal doomsday—in an economic boom & a spell of record growth😮

Nearly HALF of California cities are not even saving enough money to pay pension benefits in five years—according to the State Auditor
usnews.com/news/best-stat…

10/ As for the *other* twin supermassive fiscal black hole:

More than 70% of the cities in California do not have **ANY** funds set aside for other post-employment benefits—such as retiree health care—according to the State Auditor.

None. Zero. Zilch.😮
dailybreeze.com/2019/10/24/la-…

11/ Since 2013-14:

✅California schools have seen *declining* enrollment b/c of the declining birth rate

✅Average school district pension costs *increased* by 102% 😮in 4 years

✅State K-12 spending increased 65% since 2011-12

The pension disaster is ALREADY hitting schools

12/ For LAUSD, over 4 years:

✅Revenues rose 24%

✅The number of teachers *declined* by 13%

✅Retirement spending surged 84%😮

✅Retirement spending's share of LAUSD operating expenses grew 47%

✅The share spent on teacher salaries *dropped* by 17%

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