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#Panel discussion on "What is the new normal for #CESEE?"
@wiiw_news #wiiwSpringSeminar
Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."
Zubovic: positive trends in #Serbia: - rapid #growth in #IT sector over last 3/4 years w/ 3% to 6% share of GDP - Huge Chinese #investments, but with #externalities - Macroeconomic #stability, no fiscal #deficit anymore - foreign #debt declining - Substantial growth of #GDP
on the Negative:
- After #crisis hit hard
- over 9 years didn’t catch up, structural #reforms didn’t happen
- Not really #EU member but have to adapt and harmonize which can be an obstacle
- #GDP slowing down now, expected not to grow over 3% in following years
Lewandowski @ibs_warsaw on #Poland: not really prepared for future, Million Ukraines migrated to #Poland, lot of luck for labor market, unprepared for aging #population. Struggle lot w/ challenges in long-term #care, still no system devoted to this issue.
@ibs_warsaw #Poland Iinclined on spending on #transfers and not #services. Benefited from #technology last 15 years a lot, benefited also from the educational boom, but huge challenges for #demographic changes w/ youth migrating to other labor markets.
@ibs_warsaw Boris Majcen on #Slovenia: Low activity rates in older age-cohorts. In long term decrease of #pension system. Questions of what's going on w/ non-standard version of #labor contracts? In any case believe we’re on right track, but have to push decision-makers into right direction.
@ibs_warsaw Miklos Szanyi on #Hungary: Government doesn’t even ask for advice from researchers, #Hungary again in shine of interest in negative sense - Black sheep. But there is a very good performing part: #manufacturing, mostly by multinational companies, provided w/ generous #incentives
@ibs_warsaw This year #construction of BMW factory will be started in #Hungary w/ huge state promotion including take-over of employer salary for 5 yrs. Government badly needs properly functioning part of #economy, but other side has #corruption and political rent-seeking. #wiiwSpringSeminar
The #panel led by @MarioHolzner @wiiw_news now takes questions
@MarioHolzner @ibs_warsaw Vizek:
On the question of #wage dynamics_ #Greenfield #FDI didn't go to #Croatia b/c wage lvls were high & not competitive. In last years #wage costs stagnated, but nevertheless there wasn’t a good #investment climate to attract these kind of #greenfield FDI in the first place.
@MarioHolzner @ibs_warsaw Interestingly #Croatia saw highest rate of economic #growth during period where government was unstable and couldn't meelde with the #economy.
@MarioHolzner @ibs_warsaw Zubovic: primary sector attracted #employment in last years but country highly dependent on #FDI & also experiences high level of foreign #trade #deficit. We have reduced #unemployment rate substantially, but grew in highly educated. In long term structural problems to deal with.
@MarioHolzner @ibs_warsaw Find all presentations of the @wiiw_news Spring Seminar 2019 here:…
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