As 31 January draws ever nearer, it is striking just how little we know about what Brexit will mean. We know that there were strong impulses behind the leave campaign (and the leave vote)... but we still don't know what choices the Govt will make. Thread. 1/
At root, Brexit was about 'taking back control', enabling the UK to remove itself from the EU's orbit. Europe was, it is said, holding the UK back. Free from the constraints of the EU, the UK would prosper. 2/
While some details are hazy, it is clear that post-Brexit UK aspires to be free to set its own immigration policy and trading standards, and to make its own trade deals with the rest of the world. And... that it aspires to prosper. 3/
The leave campaign always (disingenuously) underplayed the UK's role within the EU, creating a narrative that the EU was imposing 'its' standards on the UK. But... that's not the main point here. 4/
The point is about the practical benefits, and costs, of divergence/sovereignty. What will the UK choose to do differently? What benefits will flow from those choices? And, importantly, what costs are associated with choosing to leave the EU's regulatory orbit? 5/
This sort of cost/benefit analysis (which involves a balance between the short and long term, and between economic, social and political considerations), should have been conducted before the referendum, before A50 was triggered, and before the 2019 GE. 6/
As we all know, it wasn't; and there was no 'national conversation' about the choices. Vacuous sloganeering was enough. Take back control; get Brexit done; sunlit uplands; cake and eating it too. 7/
This continues today. Businesses are told to celebrate the end of uncertainty. And yet... they know next to nothing about what the future holds. 8/
Til the end of 2020, little or nothing will change. But, assuming that the Govt does not extend the transition period (and we will know for sure by July), things *will* change in 2021. 9/
On trade... if, as seems likely, the Govt chooses to establish the UK's right to diverge, there will, as @SamuelMarcLowe has argued, be significant costs. cer.eu/insights/flexi… 10/
On chemicals (and other areas in which there are common European rules)... does the UK want to diverge from EU standards? Do businesses who operate in the relevant sectors, want to diverge? See @iamian16 here:
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On Erasmus, and European research frameworks, does the UK want to participate? Do UK universities? 12/
Many other examples could be given. The Govt will have to balance the costs and benefits of proximity with the EU vs divergence; or between continuity and change. 13/
After the 2019 GE win, Johnson has a free hand. In the weeks and months ahead he will set out the UK's position, and seek to reach agreement with the EU. 14/
It will be very interesting to see who he, and the other members of his new Cabinet, are listening to; what they will attempt to negotiate with the EU; and whether it is possible to reach agreement (by the end of 2020). 15/
Sloganeering will not be enough. Choices will have to made. And they will have real political and economic consequences. 16/16
