Two great threads here from two of the best people to follow on Brexit twitter. I agree with a lot of what the Davids are saying... but I worry that they are being a little too optimistic. Thread. 1/
The question facing the UK, now that Brexit is 'done', is what the future relationship with the EU (and the rest of the world) is going to look like. As @davidallengreen says, the referendum mandate provides little (or no) assistance. 2/
But... PM Johnson now has a big majority in Parliament, and can set the UK's post-Brexit course. The question is what 'remainers' can do to seek to ensure that a close relationship with the EU is maintained. 3/
They will be challenged by many 'leavers' who will seek to ensure that the UK remains distant from the EU's regulatory orbit, that sovereignty is 'restored', and that the UK is free to set its own standards, and make its own trade deals. 4/
What will the Govt do? So far, successive Govts have managed without even acknowledging the choices and trade-offs which inevitably lie ahead. We can maintain economic benefits while establishing the right to diverge. We can both have our cake and eat it too. 5/
The big failure of remain has been the failure to force the Govt to confront these choices and trade-offs. Many don't know, and/or don't seem to care, that they exist. 6/
The idea that economic rationality will now win out seems unduly optimistic. It hasn't been a prominent feature of the UK's Brexit debate to date. Yes, things might now change... but I'm not sure that they will. 7/
That's in large part because of the politics. Johnson has united leave. Those who agitated for Brexit, who fought to 'take back control', and to end EU interference, are backing him... for now. But if he makes 'concessions' to the EU, they will (again) cry betrayal. 8/
I can't see Johnson deciding to challenge them. That would involve crushing many Brexit dreams. And for what? For an inherently unstable rule-taker relationship with the EU which no-one is enthusiastic about. 9/
If that's right, Johnson is likely to push (as he said in his manifesto) for a hard Brexit. Remainers have few, if any, mechanisms to deploy to seek to push him in a softer direction. 10/
They will no doubt make the economic case for proximity, but the Govt will not be listening. Brexit will happen, and it will happen on Johnson's terms. 11/
As I see it, the key task for remainers is to explain the nature of the choices the Govt is making, and point to the adverse consequences which result from those choices. 12/
It is far too early to talk about rejoining the EU. But it is crucial that the Govt's Brexit choices are subjected to rigorous scrutiny. This is Johnson's Brexit; he has to be made to own it. 13/13
