I've been spending some time reading comments from those who will be celebrating on Friday. It has been instructive. Thread. 1/10
They are celebrating the achievement of getting Brexit done. They are talking of freedom, liberation, democracy... and feel that they are fully entitled to laud it over those who have tried and failed to stop Brexit. 2/10
There is no focus on the future relationship. Perhaps many don't care about the minutiae of international trade; perhaps they trust Johnson to deliver for them. 3/10
They do not seem to worry about economics ('bumps in the road' are priced in; blame narratives (directed at remainers, and at the EU) are well honed). 4/10
But they do worry about 'BRINO', and about continued EU 'interference' in the UK. What's the point of Brexit if the UK remains within the EU's regulatory orbit? 5/10
A lot of sensible commentators are suggesting that Johnson is about to disappoint them; and pivot towards a close future relationship with the EU. 6/10
I hope that they are right... but I'm afraid that I can't see it. Politically, it makes no sense. Johnson will want to keep the leave alliance together. He will want to be seen to be standing up to the EU. 7/10
All this makes the task of the opposition very difficult in the months and years ahead. Johnson seems (for now) to be impervious to 'normal' arguments based on economic rationality and common sense. 8/10
The opposition can (and hopefully will) relentlessly point out the economic consequences of Johnson's Brexit choices. But it will also have to do more. 9/10
The key task - and remain spectacularly failed to do this in 2016 (and since) - is to challenge the freedom/liberation/sovereignty narrative on which Brexit's appeal rests. Not easy... but it needs to be done. 10/10
