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Nice post on marketplaces by @kevinakwok.

Zooming in on the evolution of supply from underutilized fixed assets (i.e. spare capacity) to professionalized supply.

On what marketplaces today does opportunity exist to build professionalized suppliers?

kwokchain.com/2020/01/23/und…
Does professionalization accelerate the commoditization of marketplace supply? Or is it a sign supply is already commoditized.

Would seem once demand side is strong enough to warrant professionalization of supply, it means commoditization has occurred?

Or is the opposite true? Marketplaces are often supply constrained, and professionalization of supply is a necessary condition to scale, and only after doing so is it possible to commoditize supply?
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
TLT beating S&P 500 by 600bps over 6 years

#BondsForTheLongRun
Investment grade corporate bonds (!) beating small and midcap stocks over the last 6 years

#BondsForTheLongRun
The existence of the equity risk premium is why you've been able to earn *squints* 50bps a year in excess return in the S&P 500 vs TLT over the last 15 years
Read 4 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
Uber was asked about ATG at Morgan Stanley this week. Given the massive cash burn in the segment, I think there's legitimate questions about a) why Uber needs to be in this business b) how they have any chance of winning

I was not convinced by Dara's answer and remain skeptical
Note Dara did say: "That said, if any of those competitors want to put their tech on our platform, we would absolutely be open"

In other news, Waymo is considering changing its business model to licensing the driverless technology.
In other other news, driverless technology likely won't make up a material portion of ridesharing trips for well over a decade, but it is a very sexy thing to talk about
Read 3 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
My (irrelevant) view is many are using too narrow a range of likely outcomes with too high levels of certainty.

There’s massive path dependency involved because we don’t know how it will evolve and more importantly how people’s behaviors will change, by choice or even by force.
It seems likely people are going to act differently. And the 2nd order effects of those behavioral changes may cascade.

I don’t know if we’ll have a recession, a meaningful slowdown, or just minor impacts.

But I find the risk assessment more challenging than anything post GFC
Maybe this quickly passes and the market is much higher in 3-4 months and I look silly. But my view is probabilistically handicapping the outcomes here calls for a large dose of humility.
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Dan Hockenmaier
@danhockenmaier
The same factors that make marketplaces hard to build often make them incredible businesses at scale.

Riffing with @onecaseman @lennysan and @eriktorenberg inspired me to dust off some of my favorite learnings on how to build a marketplace 🧵
Online marketplaces by @jeff_jordan

The #1 job of a marketplace is to create the conditions for what economists call perfect competition. Some of the ways to accomplish this: level playing field, trust and safety, transparency, and economic empowerment.

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Dr. Çağrı Mert Bakırcı
@cagrimbakirci
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Kevin Kwok
@kevinakwok
New essay up. On Making Uncommon Knowledge Common + the Rich Barton Playbook

kwokchain.com/2019/04/09/mak…
Rich Barton isn't known well in SV. But has strong claim to best consumer founder

Magnitude of success probably isn't best metric. Repeatable success is the key. And Rich Barton may be only consumer founder with three billion plus outcomes

Founded
- Expedia
- Zillow
- Glassdoor
Had written about him in memo on Zillow's pivot to Opendoor's model and his return as CEO. So wanted to split out section on Rich Barton's Playbook and Zillow's origin to share

Repeatability in the dark forest of consumer implies non-arbitraged insights. And is worth discussing
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covert_extrovert
@ExtrovertCovert
1) @realDonaldTrump @WhiteHouse @POTUS
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#LooksGood [ ! ] 👇🏽
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RAICES
@RAICESTEXAS
#Today's story to #EndFamilySeparation Four months ago, Dad and 4-month-old entered at the Texas/Mexico border and requested #asylum. Dad and child were immediately separated and the baby put in ORR custody. #FamiliesBelongTogether
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Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji
Thread....
What is the size of the global #oil spare production #capacity?
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#OPEC
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