Thread by @Staedtler

Obviously they haven't abandoned Brexit yet, so I've been wrong in the timing.
But I'm still going to be right in the end because the Tories will have no choice but to sack Boris Johnson and abandon Brexit.

What the media haven't noticed, just because they're not that bright, is that the last three Tory leaders have all tried to do exactly the same thing . . .

First Cameron, then May and now Johnson have all tried to use Brexit - or misuse it - to renegotiate our terms of membership of the European Union.

But all three of them, Cameron, may and Johnson, have got out of their depth

It was Cameron that started it by boasting himself up about treaty change.
That was the moment the Tories became unhinged because you can't change European treaties as easily as public schoolboys coast about it.

So Cameron came back with no renegotiation at all, and then plunged into a referendum that he had no idea how to win.

So Cameron was the first of the three to completely misunderstand Britain's relation with the European Union, and fail to understand his own party.

So Cameron fucked up his negotiations, fucked up his referendum, and then resigned.

One down, two to go

Then it was Theresa May's turn. She looked at Cameron's mess and decided that the problem was that he didn't threaten Europe hard enough.

This is where the news media completely lost track of the story. May gave Article 50 notice, and she intended to use that to get herself into a treaty renegotiation . . .

Well, Europe wasn't going to allow that sort of nonsense. You can't misuse Article 50 like that. You have to dissolve membership first.
She didn't dare do that without agreeing to single market and customs union long term.
Which parliament rejected, and she resigned..
two down

So then Johnson takes over, after boasting himself into the job. And Johnson becomes the third prime minister to try the same thing.

First Cameron holds a referendum, loses it and resigns.
Then May gives Article 50 notice, fails to get a new treaty, gets defeated in parliament and resigns.

And now Johnson . . .

Johnson can't hold a referendum because Cameron already did that. He can't give Article 50 notice because May has already done that.

All Johnson can do is let Brexit happen and then try and get his new treaty after we've already left.
This is, of course, exactly what Europe said from the very first day.

It's taken Britain three years, three prime ministers and two general elections to come round to what Europe told you in the first place - you can't have a new treaty until after you've left

So we leave in a week, and then Johnson can have the treaty negotiation that Cameron and May tried to get . . .
except that Johnson had to leave the European Union to get it.

You can have a treaty renegotiation any time you like. The only condition was that we had to leave the European Union first.
And Johnson was the only one of the three - him, Cameron and May - that was stupid enough to do that.

So now we leave the European Union in a few days, and from that moment Johnson will become completely powerless.

If Europe was interested in saving the neck of boastful prime ministers they would have given Cameron what he wanted, or May what she wanted. And Johnson will do no better.

Johnson has got no options left. he can't hold a referendum because we've done that. can't give Article 50 notice because we've done that. can't hold an election because he's done that.

The only thing left that Boris Johnson can do now is produce a new treaty.

And whatever that is is going to split his party and bring down his government.

The Conservative Party is fatally split. Too close to Europe and the ERG are ready to mutiny again and bring down a third prime minister.
But too far away from Europe and you have to leave Northern Ireland behind, you split the union, and Johnson resigns.