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Ipsos MRBI #ge2020 exit poll geographical breakdown, versus GE16 result...

Dublin (2016 v poll projection)

FG 21.6% v 21.1%
FF 16.8% v 14%
SF 14.1% v 22.3%
Greens 4.2% v 12.9%
Labour 8.7% v 8.1%
SolPBP 8.7% v 7%
SD 4.6% v 6.1%
Inds and others 21.2% v 8.5%
Rest of Leinster (2016 v 2020 exit poll)

FG 25.8% ➡️ 21.7%
FF 28.0% ➡️ 25.9%
SF 15.1% ➡️ 24.1%
Lab 7.4% ➡️ 5.1%
Green 2.7% ➡️ 5.1%
SD 5% ➡️ 3.6%
SolPBP 1.8% ➡️ 1.8%
Others 14.2% ➡️ 12.8%
Munster (2016 v 2020 exit poll)

FG 26.6 ➡️ 24.5
FF 25.5 ➡️ 25.6
SF 10.4 ➡️ 18.2
Lab 7.5 ➡️ 3.6
Green 2.3 ➡️ 7.4
SolPBP 3.1 ➡️ 0.7
SD 1.2 ➡️ 2.5
Inds and others 23.4 ➡️ 17.5
Connacht and Ulster (2016 v 2020 exit poll... corrected)

FG 23.9 ➡️ 22
FF 27.8 ➡️ 22
SF 16.8 ➡️ 26
Lab 3.1 ➡️ 1.7
Greens 1.4 ➡️ 6.9
SolPBP 1.1 ➡️ 1.8
SD 1.0 ➡️ 1.7
Inds and others 24.9 ➡️ 23

Plenty to digest... #ge2020
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More from @gavreilly see all

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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
THREAD: Are you registered to vote for #ge2020? And, even if you think you are, are you actually?

Here's how to get yourself sorted:
First off: as a starting position, the register of electors for #ge2020 will be the register for 2019-20, not the one for 2020-21 - which only kicks in on February 15. As you might know, this is proving problematic for more recent registrants. We'll come back to this.
However, helpfully, the register that applies for #ge2020 is the same as the one that applied for the European and local elections.

So if you changed your registration in time for that - signing up for the first time, or maybe changing address - you're already good to go.
Read 18 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
Hearing against the Ceann Comhairle is now being pursued by four TDs - @RBoydBarrett and @Ginosocialist have been name as applicants, alongside @bridsmithTD and @paulmurphy_TD. The latter three are in Court 9 waiting for business to begin, scheduled for 2:30pm.
The four TDs are seeking a judicial review of the Ceann Comhairle's decision not to allow them move a motion changing Dáil rules about 'money messages' (explained in video in previous tweets). If granted, question arises of whether motion can then be moved in Dáil this afternoon
It looks, therefore, like the first question for Mr Justice Garrett Simons is to establish whether the Ceann Comhairle's actions in running the business of the Dáil are subject to review by the Courts in the first place…
Read 38 tweets
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Gavan Reilly
@gavreilly
More on this idea after talking to senior sources in Dublin:

The 'double veto' idea was originally discussed with Theresa May, who wouldn't countenance anything which left Northern Ireland operating under a different regime to GB on Day One post-Brexit/transition period.
I'm told that Ireland has no objection to it in principle - "We've always been open to a democratic backstop" - but there's never been serious engagement on it, and few think it would fly in Westminster given current state of play (viz. @eastantrimmp already criticising it today)
Ireland's position in effect is that Northern Ireland, having opposed Brexit and supported the original Backstop, ought to be allowed to remain outside NI to remain in a customs union with the EU on Day One post-Brexit.

That's why this proposal would fall, as the PM won't buy it
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Brigid Laffan
@BrigidLaffan
Short thread on Irish election #GE2020 for my non-Irish followers. 1. #FF the party that informed Peter Mair’s ‘cartel party’ will not be a cartel party again. It will never regain its pre-crash standing. 2. SF emerged as the largest party in vote terms. @BrigidLaffan
The performance of #SF was a surprise given their 2019 EP & local elections performance but they managed to frame a manifesto that really resonated with the electorate @BrigidLaffan
The election was not about BREXIT but domestic issues-housing & health were the top two. Irish voters not concerned about jobs or the economy for the first time in 10 years. @BrigidLaffan
Read 9 tweets
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Amil Khan
@Londonstani
As a former journalist who just worked on progressive campaigns during this election; there are a couple of basic truths that it is important for UK progressives to accept otherwise we will condemn ourselves to an unending spiral of failure and bitterness. #thread
Firstly; #Labour didnt lose because the media was against it. This might feel like a warm blanket in the post-election freezing wind, but it’s crap. The way digital information has developed means that narratives are mostly formed online before the papers magnify them
We dont live in the 1970s, 20 million people dont watch Panorama every week (trust me, i worked there), newspaper readership is falling; and - vitally - most people now form views on issues based on what friends and family say online. There is academic work on this. Check it out.
Read 13 tweets
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Mark O’Brien
@obrienmark
Dublin's heart and charm is cluttered, cluttered with atmosphere not fecking 'quarters' with their chrome and their Costas. Dublin is a good second-hand shop, a Freebird records, Dandelion market, Kehoes, Mulligans, Marks Bros, where folk gather, share and hunt for diamonds....
It's Bewley's and the Savoy and tara street station and the piano at Pearse and Chapters bookshop and get the last of your wrapping paper and the walk to Croker and the canal end heaving and Patrick Kavanagh chilling on the canal..
It's the glow of the Aviva and the dart rattling in and the excitement of Grafton Street and the velvet of the Gaiety, the sticky floors and sounds of the Olympia and Thomas street with artists and those that might be drinking pints as the toilet rolls are sold on the street
Read 11 tweets
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Mona Eltahawy
@monaeltahawy
#FF @maitelsadany on #Egypt constitutional amendments. And invite her to speak at all hearings on Egypt. I am sick and fucking tired of seeing just Egyptian men speak about Sisi and his fascism. There are women in Egypt. There are Egyptian women who are experts on our country.
This is why I wrote my 2012 essay Why Do They Hate Us? & my 1st book Headscarves and Hymens: Why the Middle East Needs a Sexual Revolution: as with almost every revolution, regardless of risks we women took, it would crystallize into one group of men fighting aother group of men.
And ICYMI, patriarchy being its universal self: one group of men fighting another group of men is an apt way of describing US election coverage: mentions of male candidates have been consistently higher than women & women candidates receive disproportionately negative coverage.
Read 5 tweets
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WeThePeople #ForTheMany #DangerousHero #JC4PM2019
@gaurangmorjaria
#poll If there was a Snap General Election, who would you vote for?

(For other parties, please vote them in comments)

Please RT once Voted! 😃
1997: Blair 13.5mn votes
1997-2015: Blairites/ Others lost 180 seats & 5mn voters
2017: Corbyn 12.8mn votes/ Gained 32

2019:

add first time voters (75% of those who vote, vote for Labour)

Subtract 2% of the population, 80% of whom vote Tories!

Labour Landslide on the cards!
Lab’s share of vote could be 14.5+mn

Once we take into account first time voters- 16 or under at 2017

first time voters -never voted before, disenchanted by Blair years whilst

removing Tory support -loss of voters due to old age

=> Lab will gain 100+ seats from Tories alone
Read 32 tweets
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Pegasus CorpGovnance
@PegasusCorpInfo
#ff
7 September 2018  #BeatCancer
@Bradleysfight May Bradley Rest In Peace and his family and friends always be comforted by his memory. I hope the #HelenRollasonAward 2017 from BBC
Sport will have helped them.
#ff
7 September 2018  #BeatCancer
@harry_moseley @Jack_Marshall_ May they
Rest In Peace and may their families and friends always be comforted by their memory.
#ff
7 September 2018  #BeatCancer
@Rachael_Hodges @steveevans51 @_StephensStory May Rachael
Bland, Steve Evans and Stephen Sutton Rest In Peace and their family and friends always be comforted.
Read 18 tweets

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