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My unpopular take on Canada’s massive immigration.

Raising immigration targets as much as Canada has, all at once, doesn’t solve the problem people think it does.

It actually compounds existing issues. Here’s a progressive’s rant on high immigration.

<thread> ⤵️

#VanRe #ToRe
An aging population is one of Canada’s biggest issues.

As Canada ages, we have fewer people of prime earning age, more dependents, and a dwindling tax base to support dependents.

Basically, we need more young people to pay our bills. So we import them to cover the loss.
Sure, they’ll create their own dependents, but immigrants tend to have more kids in general. Right?

That was a good assumption for Canada in the 1980s, but not today. Increasingly, immigrants find Canada super expensive - who can afford a bunch of kids?
Which brings up the real issue - the cost of living.

People have kids when they’re ready, feel secure, and have sufficient resources. If they can’t, they won’t.

Yes, even immigrants are having fewer kids as a result.
So we import two immigrants, and they have 1.8 kids. That’s *still* a dependency problem.

We actually need to facilitate young people having kids in Canada. Otherwise, importing them just kicks the can down the road.
How do we do that? Well, make it easier for people that want kids (including immigrants) to have them. They need savings.

What’s the largest hurdle? HOUSING. Young people in cities like a Toronto and Vancouver are paying 50% of their income, sometimes more, for a one bedroom.
By devoting so much of their income to basic shelter, they start saving later in life.

After bouncing through insecure housing for 15 or so years, they buy a 1-bedroom.

It’s not big enough to have kids, it’s a horrible home - but they’re happy to have secure housing.
Ironically, the immigrants we brought in to support the waning tax base are competing for the same housing.

This drives up the cost of housing, making it harder for older and new Canadians to afford it. Your taxes didn’t rise much, but now you’re paying more to live. 🤷‍♂️
Now these young people are getting to the last years they biologically can have kids.

Their next decision is a gamble for most: do they have kids, or do they save for retirement? 🤔

Took the kids pill? Sweet. Unless you have more than 2, we have to import people.
Took the retirement pill? Sweet. Now we also import more people under the current logic.

Either way, we compounded the issues.

Housing becomes more expensive, taxes increase, and debt increases. GDP was padded, and people are confused why the best economy ever sucks.
What’s the solution? Taper immigration back to pre-2015 levels, stronger mortgage regulations, and make debt more expensive so it doesn’t set a debt trap for borrowers.

Despite the story the government tells, things aren’t improving - just look at GDP per capita.

</thread>
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