Thread by @Mykuhl

New Zealand have just dropped the spinner with the best average of all NZ spinners in NZ since 1987 (min 100 overs) because he wasn't successful in Australia. #NZvIND

In the last 50 years, only John Bracewell has a better average than Mitchell Santner (29.39 vs 34.52) and only Bruce Martin has a better economy rate (2.29 vs 2.30)

He's also been better with the bat than all regular spinners except Vettori, (batting average 33.37 vs 33.30).

I know that it's cool to want Santner dropped. I would prefer if he took bags of wickets more often.

But Ajaz Patel has yet to take a single wicket in his three opportunities in NZ.

Santner keeps it tight, builds pressure, gives the quicks a rest and picks up the odd wicket.

He's done it time and time again. We have never lost a single home match in which Mitchell Santner has played, but we have won 72% of them. The three draws have all been rain affected, one of which we were almost certainly going to win before a day and a half was rained out.

The ability to build pressure and give the quicks a rest is a real skill, and a valuable one.

Our pace bowlers average 25 in the second innings of matches where Santner has played, and average 31.84 when he isn't playing.

That can be the difference between winning and losing.

There is actually statistical evidence to back up a claim that Santner is the GOAT of NZ spinners in NZ. John Bracewell is probably ahead, but Santner is in the conversation. And for him to be discarded for a WTC match against the overwhelming favourite is a bold move.

There has been some talk about him getting more round-arm recently, and hence not generating the same bounce that he had previously.

However in the last 3 home seasons, he's averaged 29 with an economy rate below 2, while he averaged 38.4 with an economy rate of 2.5 before that.

There's the caveat here that the sample sizes are small. But sample sizes are normally small with cricket stats.

He's bowled roughly 600 deliveries in home tests in the past 3 seasons. that's not enough to really talk about the probability of rare events like wickets reliably.

But it is enough to look at economy rates with a degree of statistical confidence. He might or might not be taking wickets more often, but he is certainly keeping batsmen quite more, and that means that he's almost certainly building more pressure.

Pressure is the thing that wins cricket matches. The fact that Sodhi doesn't create enough of it is the reason that he is not regularly selected in tests.

Ajaz Patel has shown that he has been able to build some pressure, so there's a chance that that led to this decision.

but I have a horrible feeling that Santner has been dropped due to his performance in Australia.

I was quite outspoken at the start of that tour that I did not think Santner should have been picked to play in Australia, as the conditions do not suit his style of bolwing.

but the conditions here do suit him. And as a result he should be picked here, unless there's clear evidence that someone else will do better.

In domestic matches in the last 2 years, Ajaz Patel has averaged 30.22 with an economy rate of 2.86. These are good numbers for a spinner in NZ.

But Santner has averaged 25.75 with an economy rate of 2.05.

There's no evidence from domestic cricket to support Patel over Santner.

When I say that the conditions in Australia don't suit his style of bowling, here's a list of every finger spinner to take 15 wickets against Australia in Australia at an average of less than 40 in the last 30 years:

Pretty short list, huh?

Dropping Santner for failing there is almost like dropping an elephant for not winning a "who's smallest" contest against a mouse.

This thread may or may not have something to do with the fact that my series preview that was to be titled "How Mitchell Santner might be the unlikely key for New Zealand" is very unlikely to be published now. :)

probably a better example would be if USA's Davis Cup tennis team dropped John Isner before a tie on grass, because he'd just lost both matches against Spain on clay.

@threadreaderapp unroll

Well, it turns out that a version of it did get published anyway. :) firstpost.com/firstcricket/s…