Thread by @SimonFRCox

THREAD
Tory immigration rules use Brexit to reshape UK labour market - low-paid & zero-hour jobs for Brits; steady high paid jobs for foreigners. 1/

https://twitter.com/simonfrcox/status/1230087192036478977

Big changes planned for 1 Jan 21

1. employers can’t recruit very low-paid workers from EU.

Employer can only employ current UK legal residents (or UK/Irish citizens from abroad)

OR

recruit from abroad with contractual min £20K salary 2/

Big change no 2

No cap on employers recruiting high/medium/low-ish paid workers (but not on zero hours or as contracted self-employed) 3/

New *immigration* rules effectively set minimum *labour* requirements in sectors that depend on temporary foreign labour.

Only British citizens and residents can be employed on zero hours contract. Only they can be paid less than £20K

Brits become the low-paid labour pool. 4/

So expect:

- strong pushback from biz in services, distrib’n & food industries. They depend on insecure short-term low-paid

- biz closures & rising prices in those sectors

- rising demand for irregular workers

- more pressure on Gov/officials to drive people off benefits 5/

Will we see discrimination *in favour* of foreign workers?

British? You can be legally employed on zero hours contract at £8.72 p/h

Not enough British residents to fill the jobs? Recruit from abroad - but that requires guaranteed salary of 20K = £9.85 (40 hr week) 7/

(If you don’t believe that’s possible, I was once offered a job the UK employer had chosen to advertise with fixed salary so they could recruit from abroad, and they proposed to pay me less because I’m British...) 8/

But wage discrimination on grounds of nationality is illegal under Equality Act 2010.

So we’ll likely see employers switching from zero hours contracts & paying min £20K (so they can recruit from abroad) but offering same conditions to British residents (because of law). 9/

If that’s right, new immigration rules will mean:

- rise in very low wages & less zero hours contracts (in sectors which need new foreign workers)

- therefore *increased* proportion of British resident workers in those sectors, because work conditions more attractive. 10/

But authorised employers will now be free to recruit English speaking foreigners from *anywhere* in the world to “skilled” jobs with a contractual salary of £25,600+

What does this mean in practice? 11/

1. English-speaking becomes central to recruitment of foreign workers at any salary (ie from £20K up). So key pressure point / boundary is “what standard English” and “who decides?”

Bigg boost to the English-teaching & examining market. 12/

What’s “speaking English”? I can’t see that defined in the new policy docs, but long-standing level for UK visas that require it is “CEFR level B1 in reading, writing, speaking and listening” gov.uk/tier-2-general… /13

CEFR B1 = “understand main points of clear standard input on familiar matters regularly encountered; read simple reports on familiar topics & write simple e-mails on subjects in their field; not adequate to function fully in workplace in English” efset.org/english-score/… /14

So English language requirement doesn’t give native speakers a real advantage. Hundreds of millions of others are at, or can reach, level B1.

Crucial control will be the “skills levels” > /15

Home Office will set the “skills level”. Can be lowered / raised as Ministers/officials see sector/job as one for foreign workers or not.

Gov policy on “skills” isn’t published afaics. But workers will need to A-level equivalent qualifications gov.uk/government/new… 18/

So, to recap, employers can recruit to skilled* jobs paying £20K workers with A-level equivalent quals & speaking functional English.

*undefined yet 20/

Employers will have to be HO approved under established systems: apply, pay a fee, spot checks on whether workers are doing the job. 21/

What does this mean for Leave voters who felt EU citizens were occupying the *better-paid* careers that British school leavers aspire to: like plumbing & other skilled building work? 22/

Looks like employers will be free to employ - now from anywhere in world - skilled construction workers on £20/£25K, as long as they have an A-level equiv and reasonable English.

Is that the Brexit we voted for? 23/

So £20K might become the new real minimum wage. But this policy may put downward pressure on wages above £25K. Workers from populous low-income countries who meet English & education levels may be much better off as a UK carpenter on £25K, even after living expenses. 24/

Of course, most occupations / areas have low demand for foreign labour. But changes in wages/conditions in sectors that do can knock on to others. 25/

One sector gets special treatment: farmers! They can employ for the season at minimum wage, but under a national cap for 2020 of 10,000 (4 times last year).

So they’re still dragging wages down gov.uk/government/new… 26/

So this “immigration” policy really matters to actual & would-be foreign workers.

But it’s also a “workers rights” policy that could affect millions of British residents. 27/27

PS detail of current work permit conditions & fees here. gov.uk/tier-2-general