Thread by @ThyConsigliori

25 Feb 2020 - #MAGAAnalysis China

One of the key aspects of my projection that CCP will fall, is that communist regimes almost always respond to stress by toughening, by hardening control. We're seeing that happen right now.

cnbc.com/2020/02/25/cor…

2) Yet, there is a fear I've been trying to isolate in my heart, and today's story above helped me clarify what's been bugging me. Before I explain, I have to make reference to George Orwell's famous work, 1984, written in 1948. I read it in 1984, looked around, and went, nah...

3) When I recently reread it, it horrified me in its accuracy. Today's story clarifies the following key factor. Technology. Yes, Orwell was describing a state very much like the USSR, and his plot's technology platform was only slightly more advanced than reality at the time.

4) Communism obviously did not require 21st century technology to assert its evil grip. But, what does it mean when a totalitarian state is able to employ technology as its most insidious form of power? This requires that I flip sides, and make the case against my own call.

5) By the way, I use the ancient Greek term for this method, dialectical analysis. First you make a case, then its countercase, and then establish your strengthened position. Today is countercase day for me. What if technology, in the hands of a totalitarian state is unbeatable?

6) Here's just one example of how that might work. Consider the power of facial recognition technology combined with both AI and Big Data. What if the state's vast apparatus becomes capable of watching your face all day, every day, and learns to predict your behavior?

7) Don't let the word "predict" to clutter your thinking. We do it all day, everyday ourselves. Children know what their parents will do - they can accurately predict - by this very means. It's not a difficult thing. Given adequate data, this expression leads to that action.

8) Now let's throw in some simple human networking awareness. Humans are social creatures, which is just another way of say we run in packs. Packs are always hierarchically led. With social media and, again, big data capability, these packs are easy to track.

9) What does it take to topple a government? I confess, I have vast amounts of reading and study yet before I can solidify my understanding. I haven't yet found a good book that covers the fall of the USSR to guide me. I will, though. I always find the book I need!

10) But getting back to my countercase, what if we simply propose that leadership must arise, a tipping point of pack behavior rebelling against the government must coalesce, and that the revolution requires one other element, the spirit of freedom, a thing in the human soul?

11) And then, what if we imagine a totalitarian government with such vast reach that it spots these leaders, tracks their influence, identifies the indicators of rebellion rising at its earliest moment, and simply destroys these fledgling networks before they hit tipping point?

12) Let's narrow our focus more. Zoom in on the idea of the human soul. Let's not go religious for the moment - although religion is obviously a HUGE component of the story - and focus more on just the spirit, as in the will to fight, and the urge to surrender. Fighting spirit.

13) The question is: can the human soul be utterly suppressed? And, can that suppression extend over an entire people? We know both those get yeses, but that leads to the question: for how long? And: under what conditions?

14) Our countercase, today, has to postulate that while coronavirus, and China's hardening of its controls over its people would otherwise have toppled the regime, its vast technological capability being factored in may support the conclusion that the CCP will be just fine.

15) Let me pause here on the process. Over the years, I've found that people often don't really hear me when I use words like "hypothesis," "theory," "guess," "case," or "countercase." I often find myself confusing people, as if I had actually flipped when making my countercase.

16) It's kind of cheating for me to reassure you, I have not flipped at all. Today's story actually strengthens my initial prediction of the CCP's fall. But, intellectual integrity demands that the countercase be made well and strong, and it requires one more thing.

17) To make a righteous countercase, you have to actually be ready to convert, and actually change sides. You have be able to say, I thought this, but now, thinking the opposite, I think I was wrong then and fear I may be right now. You see, you never really know.

18) The ONLY way to know is to test. Each side must make its own bold predictions. Then, watching the outcomes, reality is the voice that wins out. Both case and countercase are absolutely guesses. Reality speaks in a loud voice where our guesses can only whisper possibility.

19) Back to the countercase. What if the human spirit really isn't as strong as we - and I will say, we Americans - perceive it to be? What if, death all around, money gone, under constant surveillance and constant threat from the world as well as the government, spirit breaks?

20) The worst form of my countercase is that, instead of weakening the CCP, coronavirus strengthens it? Let's look again briefly at history.

We'd have to say that it took many centuries for freedom to assert much force against government.

21) It has to be mentioned that governments really aren't all that old compared to our species. All little tribes may have had leadership, but government can't be dated much past 10,000 years ago. And, during the following milenia the ungoverned outnumbered the governed by far.

22) Yet, wherever tribes coalesced into peoples, states, government control was just about automatic. It's hard to date the rise of freedom much earlier than Magna Carta, in the early 1200s. That makes freedom just about 900 years old, which is the blink of an eye in history.

23) During its roughly 900 year history, how many times has the urge for freedom been stamped out? Or, closer to home, how many generations were controlled in government slavery by the USSR? It only lasted 70 years. How do you count the generations it ruled?

24) I'm not sure, but let's just stick to the years. China's Communist Party - with vast sums of dollars and help from the USA - took complete power in 1949. It is 70 years old. That's the scariest part of today's countercase. Consider technology in 1989 compared to 2020.

25) And that's not just any 40 years, it is the decades with the most innovation in human history. We certainly hit a tipping point with technology during our lifetime. What if we throw all that new power to the CCP, and then, prognostic its vastly enhanced strength therefrom?

26) Perhaps if you know me, you'll see that even as I manfully attempt to buy this, I'm failing and the countercase is cracking. In the analysis of technology vs spirit, I will never side with technology. I view it as our tool, and yes, our democratic tool for freedom.

27) As you likely know, the traditional form of dialectic is thesis-antithesis-synthesis. I'll tease my coming synthesis with this fact. We know about coronavirus and its devastation. It is technology that is giving us this word. We'd never have heard about it without technology.

28) Okay, you forced my hand. I believe that technology is imbued with the very spirit of freedom that we humans enjoy in every cell of our being. I don't believe freedom can ever be stopped. I had to share.

29) But, and I speak here with absolute honesty, I really could be wrong. I could be wrong in my initial call, and even about freedom itself. The threat is real. Consider that a socialist disguised communist is now the Democrat front runner. Freedom offers no guarantees.

30) To dream mighty dreams, we must also face and embrace our worst nightmares. So, sadly in conclusion today, I have to contemplate the CCPs evil power extending and hardening in the months and years to come. And I also have to picture it coming here to America as well.