Thread by @ThyConsigliori

24 Feb 2020 - #MAGAAnalysis China

The coronavirus continue to demonstrate a different kind of speed than we've ever seen before. I can't attempt to keep up with its spread. Our focus, however, is the political fallout. As I have stated this is a Chernobyl-class catastrophe.

2) Consider the headline of this article:

Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast

It's almost impossible to wrap your mind around, and it reveals so much about the methods of the CCP in managing their economy.

bloombergquint.com/global-economi…

3) I was stunned, reading this article, to see how many features of a Capitalist economy, the Chinese Communists have retained. Two quotes from the article will demonstrate:

4) Quote 1:

"While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say...

5) ...they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good."

6) Until now, I've never studied the actual economic mechanics of how a Communist Party runs the businesses within its control. I do imagine the Soviet model was nowhere nearly so familiar. The quote above sounds like it could be any Capitalist economy, doesn't it? Shocking.

7) The closest thing to what I've have expected is the word "ordered" in this phrase: "ordered banks to boost lending." You can hear the power of the Politburo in that, but I can easily imagine that reality even in our own nation. Again the mechanics are outside my knowledge.

8) To understand what is happening though, you have to let your mind wander over those millions of businesses and the horror, not only of spreading disease, but complete economic collapse. It is a nightmare hard to comprehend in force and deadly impact.

9) Have you ever noticed the water tank with fish when you walk into a Chinese restaurant? The reason this is so common comes from this ancient Chinese aphorism: "A man without money is like a fish without water." The Chinese were the original Capitalists in this world.

10) What I had no idea of before I read this article is the degree that business throughout China has simply not followed a Communist model, and in fact, it's hard to even see the Socialism here. Simply stunning. More on that to come.

11) Quote 2:

"Despite accounting for 60% of the economy and 80% of jobs in China, private businesses have long struggled to tap funding to help them expand during booms and survive crises."

12) I about fell out of my chair when I read that. I cannot fathom that the most powerful Communist nation on earth has only taken over businesses that account for a mere 20% of the jobs in China. Now, I know those companies account for 40% of the economy, but even still...

13) I am going to have to find out how that worked in the Soviet Union, that's for sure. But they're gone, and right this moment, some unfathomable number of 80% of the jobs in China are at some catastrophic level of risk. Poof, gone. Consider our own Great Depression.

14) At its worst, I believe we suffered around 25% unemployment. What's more, the winning businesses of the future were scooping up assets at fire sale prices, and vast wealth was being accumulated. What China faces right now will, I predict, make that look like child's play.

15) A best case scenario, pollyannaish in its rosy outlook, gives China virus control in about 18 months. I won't list the unlikely assumptions in that timeline. My real prediction is that they are looking at ongoing years of devastation. We have reached their tipping point now.

15) But if you read the article, you'll see that over the next 60 to 120 days, millions of businesses face collapse. That's another interesting historical question about our Depression. I wonder how many businesses were shuttered, and how long it took to get that number back.

16) So, at this point, I can no longer envision the survival of the Chinese Communist Party, at all. I have to state that I see its fall happening before my very eyes as I type. Let's try to see what that might look like in the smallest possible perspective, just one business.

17) You've invested your entire life into building your business. I don't know if you're actually a loyal member of the Party or not, most likely not, your business is small. But, member or not, the last thing you'd ever dream of is to rebel against the government. Never!

18) You're likely not very political at all, all you care about is making money and living a good life. As you watch your company first implode, and then strangle to death, you won't be thinking of politics much then, either. You're just crazed with fear, dread, and pure horror.

19) While your business is dying, you have plenty of thoughts about the government's role. You're also likely grieving the loss of loved ones, and scared out of your head you're going to die, too. Every moment is a living nightmare during the day and night. No respite.

20) Step forward just 3 months forward, the end of May, 2020, and everything is gone. Your family faces more than coronavirus, it faces literal starvation. By now, while not reported, everyone knows that starvation is a far worse threat than the virus.

21) It's been known throughout history, that empty stomachs lead their possessors to build barricades in the streets and to demand change. You have no business now with which to employ yourself. What do you do with your rage? You join the Revolution, that's what you do.

22) What we have to do is explode that micro-scenario up to uncountable millions of businesses wiped out, uncountable millions upon millions of jobs gone, never to return under the current system. I've shared before that I once heard General Jack Keane say the most amazing thing.

23) He stated that the Chinese government suppresses 750,000 rebellions every year. I still have no idea how to even comprehend such a thing. How could that even be possible? I have no idea. But I do have some idea of the implications.

24) I do have some knowledge of how the CCP executes these suppressions. In their army, the send soldiers to parts of the nation as far from their own home as possible. Soldiers cannot be trusted to suppress their own people, no matter the cost to themselves.

25) I hate to use the term "whack-a-mole" over such a serious thing, yet it's exactly accurate. Divvying up hundreds of thousands of troops and shipping them, as the hammer, over the vast reach of China's territory in order to hit here, and there, and then again and again and...

26) Another thing this tells us is that the Chinese people are, in essence, no different than any other people on earth. They have the same dreams and hopes for themselves, their children and the generations of their families to come. They want freedom every bit as do we all.

27) A point I've made again and again, and continue to make, is that we are under a mandate to aid the cause of freedom all over the earth, for all mankind. Yes, there are wars to fight, when we are threatened. No, we should not fight wars unless threatened ourselves.

28) On that note, we must pause, and step back to our own victory in WWII, but also, to the great disaster that followed. There are wonderful spots such as Normandy in France, where the freedom we gave them is remembered, as my new friend @glennie_sims has taught me.

@glennie_sims 29) Listening to Bibi Netanyahu on the @marklevinshow, the freedom of the Jewish people in Israel is something our side, and especially America, made possible. The gratitude in his voice was profound, moving, and made me proud of us, more than I can say.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 30) We fought for ourselves, of course, yet we saved the reality of freedom on earth when it was at its most threatening moment. We did that. But, we also failed. We did not aid the cause of freedom over the entire planet. We lost sight of that.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 31) I can't share how deeply I have struggled with that. I recently was able to find the simple clarity I needed. We allied with Communism against Fascism. We defeated Fascism. We empowered Communism. It appears to be our perennial mistake.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 32) The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Absolutely.

But...

ONLY...

As long as our mutual enemy threatens us, mutually.

Or...

ONLY

Until we defeat our mutual enemy.

Then...

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 33) No longer having a shared enemy, my former friend is virtually certain to become my new enemy.

After WWII, Third Reich gone and Japan crushed, our formerly great ally the USSR became a far greater enemy than we could even so much as imagine. We're not good at that.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 34) When the USSR fell, our great friend China - who was our friend due to mutual enmity against the USSR - instantly became our new, greatest enemy. I'll list the four categories once again below. We must understand these really are laws, like gravity. They can't be broken.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 35) The Ancient Laws of Friends & Enemies

1) The Friend of my Friend is my Friend
2) The Enemy of my Friend is my Enemy
3) The Friend of my Enemy is my Enemy
4) The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 36) The error we always make, over and over again, is to misunderstand the ever-changing nature of the flow. We always think of today's enemy as a forever enemy, and so also with today's friends, they'll always be our friends, we wrongly think. It's just not so.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 37) With this static, rigid, shallow thinking, we never look forward realistically, and thus we're always surprised when, long afterwards, we realize the condition shifted, often years or decades before we looked up and noticed the transformation.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 38) Another example is required. We helped the Afghan people through off the evil invaders from the North. We funded the Mujahideen, and gave Osama Bin Laden his start in life. Then, the USSR leaves in 1979 and what do we do? We drop Afghanistan like it was hot.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 39) We were merely their friend while our enemy was fighting them. As soon as our enemy left, so did we. Not a second thought. We failed to be the true friend to them that we should have been. What hell have we reaped as a reward for that?

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 40) How do these ancient laws apply to us right now? We must be prepared to be the friend to the Chinese people that they deserve us to be, as soon as our mutual enemy falls. I'm not saying we're supposed to spend trillions of dollars on them.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 41) I'm certainly NOT saying we must be prepared to send our military there to help. I do not know the right steps or tactics we should employ. What I do know is that the Chinese people are NOT our enemy. Their government is.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 42) There are many factors to face, countless and all mired in chaos. But, if I'm right that Communism is collapsing in China right now, then we must remember we just lost an enemy, and we have the world's largest nation of newly freed, but devastated people who are our friends.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 43) When I keep asking, are you ready?, I mean that if I'm right, then YOUR life will absolutely be affected by this. The world is interconnected, and our financial markets and government debt is tied to Communist China at the hip. Their collapse will touch everything.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 44) It's a horrible fact of human history that we require cataclysm and catastrophe to affect transformational change. Yet, out of the horrors and destruction, out the ashes the phoenix of progress somehow always arises, sooner or later.

@glennie_sims @marklevinshow 45) As a nation we must begin to employ the power of mind we're blessed with by our great freedoms. And if I'm wrong? Then, it is time to begin envisioning a free world where we do better to encourage and support that freedom. We owe it to them, and to ourselves and our children.