Trump is probably going to get re-elected, and it's not Bernie's fault, or centrist Dems or Russia. Incumbency is a huge advantage in our elections which is why there's only been one incumbent lose their re-election and that was against Reagan a once in a generation talent
There is nothing in the first 3 primaries that suggests history will be made this fall. Turnout is okay but not historic, Trump's approval ratings are slowly inching up, and the likely nominee has an acrimonious relationship with the leadership of the party he'll likely represent
Structurally, Trump is the weakest incumbent we've had in decades, but Demographics and voter suppression have combined to create an EC path to victory for Republicans that will be hard to beat, no matter the Dem nominee.
While there is still a big field, it's safe to assume Sanders is the nominee, and he's a high risk high reward candidate. If he wins it would be huge and historic. If he loses... It could be huge and historic. That's what makes a lot of people nervous, and with good reason
Sanders path to victory may be alot like Trump, enthusiastic support, bringing along the rest of the party, but running against an incumbent who's openly vowed to cheat is radically different than 2016.
Sorry, I meant to add "without a prominent 3rd party" involved. I see 1992 as a bit of an outlier
