What's the potential scale of the epidemic?
1) JHU has 82k confirmed cases
2) ICL's Ferguson & Harvard's Lipsitch project 40-70% of population infected
3) And H1N1 did infect 11-21%
If accurate, this would mean a 10,000X increase from ~100k confirmed cases today to >1B cases.
1) JHU has 82k confirmed cases
2) ICL's Ferguson & Harvard's Lipsitch project 40-70% of population infected
3) And H1N1 did infect 11-21%
If accurate, this would mean a 10,000X increase from ~100k confirmed cases today to >1B cases.
Q: are these 40% projections realistic?
The H1N1 study helps calibrate. They looked at actual serosurvey data to determine who had antibodies to H1N1. That's molecular evidence. And from that, they estimated that 11-21% of the world had gotten H1N1.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
The H1N1 study helps calibrate. They looked at actual serosurvey data to determine who had antibodies to H1N1. That's molecular evidence. And from that, they estimated that 11-21% of the world had gotten H1N1.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl…
The UK is starting to do random testing.
Rather than waiting for people to self-identify, countries may eventually move towards random sampling of the population to estimate the % infected. More feasible with fairly high infection rates or large samples.
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
Rather than waiting for people to self-identify, countries may eventually move towards random sampling of the population to estimate the % infected. More feasible with fairly high infection rates or large samples.
reuters.com/article/us-chi…
