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1/ "The global credit machine is grinding to a halt." That's why fin mkts are seizing--China was the marginal source of credit creation globally for yrs, & fin mkts depend on credit creation to keep prices high. Price discovery has been distorted for yrs. creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/02/weekly…
2/ As usual, my Saturday☕️ includes reading Doug Noland's #CreditBubbleBulletin--he has carefully chronicled colossal credit bubble for years. Historians will view his contrarian work as invaluable to understanding why things happened as they did, & not as mainstream predicted...
3/ A few nuggets I've concluded from experience+yrs of reading Doug & others who truly understand what's going on:
* Big banks aren't well-capitalized enuf to handle this; shld be raising equity capital FAST. This was clear last Fall during #repo scare--long b4 #coronavirus hit
4/ * Expect Fed balance sheet to MASSIVELY expand when credit bubble finally does pierce to backfill the credit destruction, just as it did in 2008 but in much bigger amount.
* Expect epic headfakes in safe-haven asset mkts, incl for #gold & #bitcoin--won't go up straight-line
5/ * If u want to understand why safehaven assets incur epic headfakes as credit bubbles burst, read history book "When Money Dies" by historian Adam Fergusson. Amplitude of mkt moves increased--along the way hit 50% intraday; many claims of "it's finally over." Don't be shocked.
6/ I dunno if Doug's view is correct & the epic #creditbubble has finally been pierced--we'll only know in retrospect & I'm not in the biz of making predictions. All I can say is read history--if you understand history you wan't be shocked by what happens, if indeed it happens.
7/ You'll also understand why recent buzzing abt whether #bitcoin is safehaven asset is just noise. Near-term price is impossible to predict (& is least interesting aspect of #crypto, imho). Look for signal amid noise. Understand HISTORY of how deflations can turn into inflations
8/ If u understand both history & how credit is really created in today's global fin. system (hint: it's not what u learned in school), u'll be able to stomach the volatility that could come & think more clearly thru it so u can take better care of ur loved ones. Best wishes.🙏
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