Is Bernie still in this race? His ceiling seems dangerously low - he only broke 30% in CA, CO, VT, UT. Biden broke 50% in some states, and as Bloomberg fades is likely to be in the 40s w/a 10-15% point lead by week's end.
How does Bernie catch him? I don't think he can.
How does Bernie catch him? I don't think he can.
2/FWIW, wrote this Monday: "Biden has a real shot at keeping it close on delegates tomorrow and then opening up a permanent electoral/polling lead – one that if maintained should be enough over to outpace Bernie on delegates and win the nomination." ndn.org/blog/2020/03/r…
3/CA is 32/24 for Bernie now w/76% in. My guess is that it ends up around 29/26 with the final delegate allocation close to 50/50 due to Biden's more even distribution of his vote.
Even CA may end being a "win" for Biden in the end.
Even CA may end being a "win" for Biden in the end.
4/Trump/GOP's numbers are worse than understood:
☑️Biden leads Trump by 7-9 pts
☑️Trump's job approval worse than e-day '18
when Dems won by 8.6
☑️Only '20 battleground where Trump clearly leads - TX
☑️New polls show Senate slipping away for GOP
ndn.org/blog/2020/03/r…
☑️Biden leads Trump by 7-9 pts
☑️Trump's job approval worse than e-day '18
when Dems won by 8.6
☑️Only '20 battleground where Trump clearly leads - TX
☑️New polls show Senate slipping away for GOP
ndn.org/blog/2020/03/r…
5/On Bernie, I think a big moment was his casual tossing of Florida overboard by arrogantly sticking to his ridiculous Castro comments.
Was at that moment became clear he wouldn't grow into Party leader, couldn't be trusted to lead us into battle.
Was at that moment became clear he wouldn't grow into Party leader, couldn't be trusted to lead us into battle.
6/Also hope @JoeBiden will work to re-invent the model of how we run a Presidential campaign, using perhaps 15-20 top Dems every day to increase voter contact, counter flood of Trumpian disinfo, be loud, show united, diverse Party ready to govern, lead.
7/More evidence of why it is hard to see how Bernie gets back into the game in the coming days - he doesn't get much from Warren's fade. And IMHO she is far likely to endorse Biden than Bernie.
