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A follow up to yesterday's thread on the possible connection between the Bavarian cluster and the Italian #COVID19 epidemic. 1/5
Multiple colleagues whom I highly respect have shown skepticism of this conclusion. I agree skepticism is warranted. See comments here:


and others. 2/5
You're seeing how science works. Individuals put out hypotheses and others critique them. This is how we collectively move closer to an accurate understanding of the world. This is effectively peer review over Twitter and I think marvelous. 3/5
To clarify, I still think the hypothesis of Bavarian seeding of Italian outbreak a parsimonious explanation for the genetic data, but this doesn't mean it's the only explanation. I believe these two scenarios are both quite plausible: 4/5
I'm aiming for transparency in my thought process more than 100% correctness and I'll try keep up with the updates. 5/5
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Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
I've been mulling over the @MRC_Outbreak modeling report on #COVID19 mitigation and suppression strategies since it was posted on March 16. Although mitigation through social distancing may not solve things I believe we can bring this epidemic under control. 1/19
But first, the report. @neil_ferguson, @azraghani and colleagues model COVID-19 epidemic outcomes under different intensities of non-pharmaceutical, aka social distancing, interventions. 2/19
Different mitigation scenarios that include things like school closures, isolation of symptomatic individuals and quarantine of exposed household members, result in #flatteningthecurve and reducing mortality, but under the author's assumptions still result in an epidemic. 3/19
Read 19 tweets
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Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
A small update on genomic epidemiology of the #COVID19 epidemic in Washington State (where we have lots of data) and elsewhere in the US (where data is sparse). 1/8
By sequencing the genome of the #SARSCoV2 / #HCoV19 virus, we can see which infections are connected to which other infections. See here for background nextstrain.org/help/general/h… and @nextstrain nextstrain.org/ncov for latest analysis. 2/8
Thanks to sequencing by @UWVirology, @CDCgov and @seattleflustudy we have genomes for 39 viruses sampled from WA. Importantly 35 of these 39 viruses (90%) fall into a single genetic cluster indicating a single ~Jan introduction from China and subsequent local spread. 3/8
Read 8 tweets
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Trevor Bedford
@trvrb
This is a thread about how to interpret the seemingly sudden appearance of #COVID19 across the much of the US in the past week with some back-of-the-envelop calculations for number of current infections. 1/13
I posted back in Feb 8 with this simple model (), in which the Wuhan outbreak took from Nov to mid-Jan to grow big enough to throw off sparks and that we should expect another ~10 weeks for these sparks to grow into fires. 2/13
Although it looks like I was off by a week or two, I think the basic model was sound. Outbreaks that we're seeing across the US now are likely the result of sparks that landed in mid-Jan to mid-Feb that through exponential growth have become localized "fires". 3/13
Read 13 tweets

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Ali
@aliostad
Starting day 11 when things are getting scary. #COVID19

Picking up from yesterday's thread
Please read the usual caveat:

This video apparently showing a #COVID19 patient on the ground in Shooshtar, Khouzestan
Read 39 tweets
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Ali
@aliostad
Starting day 10 - trying to stay hopeful in a dire situation.

Picking up from yesterday's thread:

It goes with the usual disclaimer:

Dr. Mohammad Mohammadi, a senior and well-known doctor in Rasht - Gilan and ex-Coroner, has died of #COVIDー19.

Read 10 tweets
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Jeysundhar
@jeysundhar_d
Yesterday was Thiruvathirai, the day of the Thiruvathirai (Arudra) star in the month of Margazhi.

It is an important festival for Shiva temples that constitute the Pancha Sabhas where Shiva performed the Tandava. #Thread
Shiva himself is hailed as Thiruvathiraiyaan. This occasion is celebrated gloriously in Chidambaram, the primus inter paeres of the Pancha Sabhas.
In some traditions, it is celebrated as the birthday of Shiva.

But it is also the birthday of another remarkable, yet very human personality.

And that's what we'll be looking at today.
Read 31 tweets
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Peter Wolf
@Peter_Wolf_Idea
Next: DoP Session on follow up to recommendations, some questions:
• Assistance and observation needs to be symbiotic - how can this be achieved?
• What is the rationale for observation where there is no follow up?
Hassan Sesay, UN EAD:
• Recent experience: No connection between clean elections and violence?
• Holistic view is needed: technical + political perspective
• Need to combine technical assistance, preventative diplomacy, human rights
• Recommendations key for EAD projects
Tres-Ann Kremer, Commonwealth:
• Revised Commonwealth observation guidelines & memberstate committments, include follow up: post election presentation, remain in contact, possible mid term follow up, coherence with assistance
Read 9 tweets
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Saikat Datta
@saikatd
Yesterday, V Adm Bimal Verma filed a petition challenging his super session by the Modi Government. Some background since I have some personal knowledge of this #thread
As a Commodore Bimal Verma was the Principal Director of what is known as the Naval Operations Directorate. The ops room also casually referred to as the Naval War Room.
In May 2005, the IAF was alerted about a possible leak of classified information from the Naval War Room. Dana's @josyjosephkj broke the story in June and reported that a BoI was constituted into the leak.
Read 18 tweets
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Amy Berger
@TuitNutrition
THREAD: A follow-up to yesterday’s thread on Alzheimer’s disease
()
1/13 I think some people misunderstood or misinterpreted what I wrote.
2/13 I heard from a few people who told me that there are many different causes of dementia. I suspect they were saying this because they have or had a loved one afflicted with this terrible illness, and they felt a little bit defensive.
3/13 Defensive possibly because they read into my tweets something that was *not there.* Alzheimer’s is, without a doubt, the result of impaired cerebral glucose metabolism. That is the problem. Now, what *causes* that problem, we don’t know.
Read 13 tweets

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