New preprint: how will the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic unfold in the coming months and years? Will public health measures eventually eradicate it, like SARS? Or will it continue circulating, like pandemic flu? How will this depend on immunity and seasonal forcing?medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Using NREVSS data from the CDC, we found evidence of seasonal forcing and cross-immunity between the common OC43 and HKU1 coronavirus strains. These strains circulate annually and cause the common cold. The effective reproduction number for both strains ranged from 0.75 to 1.5. 
Then, we built a mathematical model to simulate SARS-CoV-2 transmission through 2025. Many scenarios lead to recurrent outbreaks in the coming years; here’s one scenario, varying just the time of year when widespread infection becomes established:
If the duration of immunity is short, the total incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection will be high. If widespread infection is delayed until the autumn and/or seasonal forcing is low, the initial peak size will be higher. Also:
-Transmission can occur at any time of year
-If immunity isn’t permanent, SARS-CoV-2 will likely enter seasonal circulation
-If OC43 and HKU1 offer any cross-immunity, SARS-CoV-2 could seem to disappear after this year, only to re-surge as late as 2025.
-If immunity isn’t permanent, SARS-CoV-2 will likely enter seasonal circulation
-If OC43 and HKU1 offer any cross-immunity, SARS-CoV-2 could seem to disappear after this year, only to re-surge as late as 2025.
