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The coronavirus is showing us the important of redundancy

However, unused redundancy (eg free hospital beds) is not the only type of redundancy

There is also redundancy in "being able to afford closing borders tomorrow so that we don't need 10x free hospital beds tomorrow"

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There first kind of redundancy is excess capacity. The second kind of redundancy is balance
Balance allows you to say "I have more than one thing going on, so I can avoid doing the one I always do if today's dangerous"

Otherwise we behave like addicts going for the overdose

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A life which has a single source of happiness leads to misery, as repeated addiction to a single cue brings addiction – the outsourcing of our decision making to the thing we believe we need.

Only having more than one cue for happiness to rotate between is sustainable.

3/3
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More from @DellAnnaLuca see all

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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
THE MORTALITY RATE IS NOT THE PROBLEM
(for now; thread)

The number of deaths is a function of: the virus, demographics, number contacts with infected and medical attention.

The last two are subject to multiplicative dynamics.

1/N
How likely you are to catch a virus depends: your immune system, the contagiousness of the virus and how exposed you are.

It's evident that the more people get the virus, the more people will get it (and the more will die).

Moreover,

2/N
The more people get the virus, the more will have to go to the hospital. At the beginning, no big deal, they get top medical attention

But what happens if the healthcare system gets saturated?
- Less medical attention → more direct deaths & more deaths from unrelated conditions
Read 6 tweets
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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
Probably the single most important headline this week:

- After just one week from the outbreak, Northern Italy is already considering expanding its hospital beds capacity because 1 in 11 patients goes in ICU
The Lombardy equiv. of the minister of Health, 5 days ago:
"in Lombardy no problem with the number of hospital beds".

Today: "the hospital beds [in this hospital] are not enough anymore […] even the ICU beds are saturated […] we're working on expanding our capacity to react."
In Lombardy they're delaying non-urgent surgeries and are re-hiring retired nurses and doctors.

Bergamo Lodi & Cremona are out of beds.

repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/0…
Read 35 tweets
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Luca Dellanna
@DellAnnaLuca
Yep - that's what I was saying yesterday – the best time to panic is now.

If the virus reaches your town, people *will* panic.

Better to panic now, so that the supply chain is hit in a staggered manner and people crowd supermarkets while chances of crowd contagion are low.
People saying not to panic now are being irresponsible unless they know the city won't be infected (they can't)

Your city should either panic with its borders (to reduce chances of infection) or with its supplies & behaviors (to mitigate the impact of infection). Can't be none.
Of course, I'm relaying on the fact that:
- If we tell people to panic today, only a few will → inconvenient & staggered impact.
- If we do not tell people to panic today and the virus hits hard and suddenly, everyone will panic at the same time → dangerous & paralyzing impact.
Read 6 tweets

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COVID19
@V2019N
“It’s the most daunting virus that we’ve contended with in half a century or more,” @michaelmina_lab an epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, said at a panel discussion Friday at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. statnews.com/2020/03/07/har…
#Coronavirus has been compared to influenza. But there are no drugs or vaccines yet for treating or preventing the virus as there are for flu. We are exposed to different flu strains which help us build immunity. No one had immunity to this virus.
“This virus, on the one hand, there’s a saving grace that it doesn’t seem to be impacting our young, and that is amazing,” Mina said. “But the mortality rate among people who are getting infected above 80 years old is 15-plus%.”
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Nigel Latta
@NigelLatta
I thought I'd do my first ever thread on #coronavirus, & specifically why staying calm (ie not losing your shit) was a good idea a week ago and is still the best idea today. It's a bit of a long-ish thread(10 tweets), but this whole thing is a bit complex...
1) Don't lose your shit because it's here now. This is a sneaky little fucker and so it was always going to come here. Given a third of people with it have no symptoms, and the majority only experience mild symptoms, containing it was always going to be almost impossible.
2) Don't get all stressed about media reporting of each new case. In all likelihood lots of Kiwis will get this thing. There's nothing surprising about that at all. Resist the tendency for reports of each new case to trigger more anxiety.
Read 11 tweets
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Pete Wharmby
@commaficionado
A thread of practical advice for preparing for #CoronaVirus - please share widely, it's well researched. #thread #covid19UK #PlanNotPanic

Thanks.
1. Hand washing - 20 seconds at least actual scrubbing with hot water and soap. Sing 'Happy Birthday' twice for correct timing. #coronavirusuk #PlanNotPanic
2. Make sure you don't waste that 20 seconds by then touching a dirty tap. Either wash the tap too, or use a paper towel as a barrier to turn it off. #CoronaVirusUpdate #PlanNotPanic
Read 13 tweets
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The Surrealist Side of the Street
@coolgrey
The Bay Area during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic...

Open-air police court being held in Portsmouth Square, San Francisco. To prevent crowding indoors, judges held outdoor court sessions
The SF Board of Supervisors passed an ordinance requiring face masks. "While the vast majority of San Franciscans followed the mask order, police arrested 110 people on October 27 alone for failure to either wear or keep their masks properly adjusted."

influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-sa…
Re early thread about hospital beds:
Crowded sleeping area on the Drill Hall floor of the Main Barracks, Naval Training Station, California, with sneeze screens erected as a precaution against the spread of influenza. thoughtco.com/1918-spanish-f…
Read 23 tweets
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Eunice Yoon
@onlyyoontv
Dr. Liang: 25 experts. Spoke with officials, scientists, residents, medical workers. Our main goals: to understand 1) characteristics of epidemic 2) clinical symptoms incl. mild/middle/critical 3) prevention/control measures and effectiveness 4) suggestions for future research
5 major findings: 1) understanding of virus. Experts studied 104 strains from different places and found they were 99.9% similar in origin. So experts believe there is no significant mutation. Ave age 51. 80% of patients 30-65. In confirmed cases, 78% from Hubei as of Feb 22...
Host- not clear. But possibly an intermediate host. Research ongoing. Transmission. Respiratory droplets. In relatively closed rooms. Might be transmitted through aerosol. Family cluster quite common. Sichuan, Guangdong typical. 78.85% cases came from family clusters...
Read 40 tweets
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War Watch
@war_watch
[THREAD] China Coronavirus Outbreak
A deadly virus is spreading from Asia, affecting hundreds of people and resulting in dozens of deaths, in what may become a gloabal health epidemic. This thread contains news about the outbreak.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus #WarWatch
On Dec 30, 2019, Chinese authorities confirmed cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, Hubei Province. A team of national experts was sent to carry out detection tests. Patients at a local seafood market were put in quarantine.
#Coronavirus #WuhanOutbreak #ChinaVirus
Liu Youning, a professor of epidemiology and respiratory medicine, told the Global Times that the #coronavirus found in #Wuhan appears to be far less serious than the virus that caused the severe acute respiratory syndrome (#SARS) or the Middle East respiratory syndrome (#MERS).
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