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This is going to get a lot worse, so let's do the math.
* Dr. Anthony Fauci testified today that the death rate from COVID-19 is 10x that if the normal flu.
* Dr. Brian Monahan, attending physician to Congress & SCOTUS, held a closed-door meeting for Senate staff yesterday. 1/
* Dr. Monahan told them he expects between 70 million & 150 million Americans will catch the coronavirus.
* Let's take low-end estimates--70 million cases w/a 1% death rate (10x the normal flu). 2/
* At the LOW END, assuming major mitigation & quarantine policies are not implemented ASAP, that's 700,000 deaths in the US. 700,000.
* That number rises dramatically if there are more than 70 million infections, or if the death rate is more than 1%. 3/
* We already know COVID-19 cases outside of China double every 5 days.
* Because of the awful Trump regime testing response, we have no idea how many people in the US already have the coronavirus.
* A conservative epidemiological estimate is 2,000 cases. 4/
* That means in 5 days, there will be 4,000 cases, in 10 days, 8,000 cases, in 15 days, 16,000 cases, and so forth.
* At that rate, by around May 11, there will be over 11million cases
* By May 16, it's almost 23 million
* By May 21, 45.5 million
* By May 26, 91 million cases 5/
* This is not "just a bad case of flu". No one has any immunity to COVID-19
* A vaccine for it won't be ready until 2021
* COVID-19 is a form of SARS, and kills (mostly people over 60 & the immune-compromised) through a vicious pneumonia leading to respiratory failure. 6/
* The WHO today declared it a global pandemic, largely due to inadequate responses
* The US has led that parade. A hyper-partisan US administration spent six weeks of valuable planning & response time declaring it a "hoax" by the President's "enemies". 7/
* This has led, in many cases, to scientists being muzzled, & top-level US govt meetings on it declared "classified"
* The best defense is keeping 6 ft from others, scrupulous hand washing, disinfecting all touched surfaces, & N95 or above-rated masks. 8/
* If the exponential rate of COVID-19 cases isn't mitigated, every available US hospital bed will be filled by mid-May.
* This won't go away this month, or next. Make long-term plans now
* While COVID-19 is exceptionally virulent, 99% of people who catch it won't die. 9/
* But for them, paychecks may dry up & economic disaster will add to the stress
* We have to hope Federal officials develop a competent response. So far, there's no sign of that. 10/-end
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