Thread by @anandMenon1

It's here! Our new report on what the various manifestos have to say about Brexit #GeneralElection2019, #GeneralElection, #Election2019, #Brexit, #ConservativeManifesto, #LabourManifesto, #LibDems, #SNP, #PlaidCymru, #Greens, #BrexitParty 1/25

It tells you everything you need to know about the party positions on the Brexit process, the future relationship and much more. We hope this report sets out in a clear and straightforward way what they’re all pledging to do. 2/25

First, let me thank all of those who have contributed: @CSBarnard24, @matt_bevington, @CharlieBEU, @hayward_katy, @McEwen_Nicola, @jdportes, @jillongovt, @DanielWinc, @DrAlanWager, @salterjp 3/25

So here goes with a quick summary. First, some general points. When it comes to #Brexit, the electorate have the full spectrum of positions from which to choose, from a ‘Clean-Break Brexit’ (@brexitparty_uk) to revoke (@LibDems). 4/25

All the parties are pledging to end the #Brexit impasse, but it's not clear they can. The @Conservatives might #GetBrexitDone in sense of ending our EU membership, but we could face another cliff-edge at end-2020 due to self-imposed deadline for a trade deal with the EU. 5/25

We're not convinced it will be possible to complete a trade deal by the end of next year. Nor that, if we do, it will be much of a deal at all. 6/25

With @UKLabour, while they might be able to renegotiate a new exit deal with the EU, completing those talks and holding a referendum in just 6 months is a heroic ask. 7/25

And that's assuming that what they're asking for is achievable. Not clear what 'joint UK-EU trade deals' or 'full alignment with single market' actually mean. 8/25

Even the @LibDems promise to revoke Article 50 on the first day of a majority Lib Dem gov could be more complex than they admit (leaving aside electoral realities). Lawyers are divided on whether it would require domestic legislation, which would mean a lengthier process. 9/25

There is even greater uncertainty with positions on the future relationship. The @Conservatives have lots to say about what they don’t want but little to say about what they do want – remarkably, there’s no mention of UK-EU security cooperation. 10/25

And there is a further tension between the party’s desire to ‘open up trade in services’, negotiations on which tend to be more contentious and time-consuming than for goods, yet strike trade deals covering 80% of UK trade in three years. 11/25

@UKLabour do propose a UK-EU Security Treaty. The bottom line is that they are proposing a far closer relationship with the EU than the Conservatives, even if their proposed referendum results in a vote to leave 12/25

Labour would strike a customs union with the EU, commit to dynamic regulatory alignment, and continue participation in EU programmes and retain EU funding programmes. But, interestingly, they have little to say about services trade. 13/25

Then there’s Parliament’s role in trade deals. The @Conservatives manifesto is silent on this @UKLabour would ensure 'transparency and scrutiny', the @LibDems assume the UK remains, @theSNP and @Plaid_Cymru proposed a devolved veto, and @TheGreenParty would give MPs a vote 14/25

We didn’t have space to look at all the policy implications related to Brexit, but we did look at migration. The headline is that, whatever happens, we’re likely to end up with a more liberal immigration system than under Theresa May 15/25

The @Conservatives are promising an ‘Australian-style points-based’ system, though the UK has had a points-based system since the late 2000s - and Australian system doesn’t require a job offer as required to come to the UK. 16/25

Their system would treat EU and non-EU migrants similarly. They also propose introducing special visas for NHS workers and a new seasonal agricultural workers scheme. They hope to recruit some 12,500 extra nurses from abroad.17/25

There’s ultimately little difference between the main British parties when it comes to the overall shape of the new system. @UKLabour talk about a system to ‘fill any skills or labour shortages’ and the @LibDems want a ‘flexible merit-based system’. 18/25

In Scotland, @theSNP propose devolving migration policy (as do @Plaid_Cymru for Wales) to allow the Scottish government to tailor the system its needs and preferences. In Wales, Plaid would use a devolved system to set its own migration quota 19/25

Finally, the economic implications of #Brexit. This has, strangely, been one of the more overlooked areas of the manifestos. Yet we know the Brexit outcome will be one of the main determinants of economic performance in the next Parliament. 20/25

However, the Tories in particular do not deal with the economic implications of #Brexit for their policy platforms. Their plans, by virtue of a more distant relationship with the EU, would have a significantly negative economic and fiscal impact 21/25

The impact of @UKLabour’s approach to #Brexit would be slightly positive, with ‘catch up’ growth offsetting the negative effects of Labour’s ‘soft’ Brexit. The @LibDems would indeed benefit from a ‘Remain bonus’. 22/25

This is, of course, subject to a large degree of uncertainty. Not least because the main parties don’t bother to spell out in detail precisely what future relationship they plan to negotiate with the EU 23/25

For those who want a quick go-to guide, we’ve produced a handy table with all the #Brexit positions of the main seven parties standing in Great Britain. A readable version (for anyone over 50) is in the full report. It's like a world cup wall chart. But less fun 24/25

All in all, we hope to have unpicked what is a complex set of proposals and pledges and made them intelligible. As I say in the report, elections of produce endless amounts of heat. Hopefully, this report sheds at least a little light. 25/25