I very respectfully disagree with the estimate of 100k #COVID19 infections in Ohio put forth by the @OHdeptofhealth. As far as I can ascertain from the press coverage (news5cleveland.com/news/continuin…), this number comes from extrapolating from 2 community cases detected. 1/5
A couple simple ways to think about this estimate. On one hand, we believe that Wuhan had roughly 100k infections on Feb 1 (via @MRC_Outbreak report 7 imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…). 2/5
Wuhan as a city had seen 1000 severe cases and 300 deaths at this point (covid2019.azurewebsites.net). Thus, given the severity of this disease I don't see how it's possible to reach 100k infections and not notice it in deaths and hospitalizations. 3/5
Another way to look at this is that it took the virus from ~Nov 1 to Feb 1 to reach 100k infections in Wuhan. This is ~90 days. Thus, it would have had to have been circulating in Ohio since mid-Dec for this to be the case, which is almost certainly not the case. 4/5
I don't doubt community spread is happening Ohio and it's highly difficult to do these prevalence estimates well without wider surveillance efforts, but I think this is certainly a strong overestimate. 5/5
I'm basing their logic on this quote: "Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it," said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC."
A follow up based on responses. Many people are saying there's a huge amount of uncounted mortality due to pneumonia. The @CDCgov tracks this, and we don't yet see this in the data (cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S2). I expect #COVID19 to start to show up here, but it hasn't yet. 
