In statement, Al-Qaeda's General Command hails U.S.-Taliban agreement on U.S. exit from Afghanistan – "a manifest victory" and "a humiliating defeat for America and its allies" – and implicitly instructs the global jihadist movement on how to understand the deal.
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We know that jihadists globally have been following U.S.-Taliban negotiations (e.g., ebaa.news/opinion-articl…).
What we know less about is how those militants – given their very particular backgrounds, eccentric worldview, etc. – are internalizing the Taliban's experience.
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What we know less about is how those militants – given their very particular backgrounds, eccentric worldview, etc. – are internalizing the Taliban's experience.
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Here it's worth bearing in mind that:
• the reality of the U.S.-Taliban agreement and its subsequent implementation, and
• how the agreement is received and metabolized, strategically, by the global jihadist movement
are two different things.
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• the reality of the U.S.-Taliban agreement and its subsequent implementation, and
• how the agreement is received and metabolized, strategically, by the global jihadist movement
are two different things.
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Even as the Taliban is not itself "Salafi-jihadist," some have hoped the group's experience could nonetheless have a positive demonstration effect on jihadists globally; encouraging al-Qaeda-related groups who venerate the Taliban to entertain alternatives to violence.
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We've thus seen renewed discussion of negotiating with al-Qaeda affiliates elsewhere, where these internationally networked groups are – locally – parties to terrible, intractable conflict, where outright military victory seems out of reach. See:
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But I don't think we should assume jihadists will take what we would consider positive, constructive lessons from the Taliban-U.S. agreement, particularly if they settle on a narrative that the deal is the formalization of a Taliban victory after a long insurgent struggle.
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For its part, al-Qaeda's global leadership has an interest in:
• translating the deal into strategic guidance for affiliates and supporters;
• defending its own credibility, given its pledge of allegiance to "Commander of the Faithful" Taliban leader Mullah Akhundzada.
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• translating the deal into strategic guidance for affiliates and supporters;
• defending its own credibility, given its pledge of allegiance to "Commander of the Faithful" Taliban leader Mullah Akhundzada.
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Thus, AQ-GC says the deal is an "awesome lesson" in how a Muslim people – through faith, unity and determination – can defeat even the most powerful infidels.
It calls on "Muslim brothers" everywhere "to follow the example of the Islamic Emirate and the Muslim Afghan...
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It calls on "Muslim brothers" everywhere "to follow the example of the Islamic Emirate and the Muslim Afghan...
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"… people; to be certain there is no path to liberation from oppression and the tyranny of occupation, foreign and domestic; and no road to instituting God’s true law except repentance and the return to God, calling [others] to Almighty Him and jihad on His path…"
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