Short thread:
Prediction: we will see over 100,000 total #ukcoronavirus deaths within a month
I make this prediction in my role as one of the much derided 'twitter pandemic experts' ie someone who understands maths (Further Maths A level) especially exponential/logistic growth
Prediction: we will see over 100,000 total #ukcoronavirus deaths within a month
I make this prediction in my role as one of the much derided 'twitter pandemic experts' ie someone who understands maths (Further Maths A level) especially exponential/logistic growth
The daily growth of deaths is more than 4/3, ie each day on average the total UK deaths increases by more than a third. You can see this from the above graph. Our line is steeper than the dotted line
This translates to a weekly growth rate of 7.5 We presently have 144 deaths...
This translates to a weekly growth rate of 7.5 We presently have 144 deaths...
So in a week's time there'll be more than a 1000; in a fortnight 7 or 8 thousand; the week after that over 50,000
This is all baked in. It takes 3 weeks to a month from infection to death. If we successfully isolated everyone in the country, right now, (spoiler we won't) we...
This is all baked in. It takes 3 weeks to a month from infection to death. If we successfully isolated everyone in the country, right now, (spoiler we won't) we...
... would still get to 50k in three weeks time. The growth rate should start coming down around then as the isolation some people are doing kicks in but looking at the country there's no way it's not going to at least double in the following week
We needed to #lockdown weeks ago
We needed to #lockdown weeks ago
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