Thread by @chrisalecanada

We were at 300 in Canada last Sunday... the exponential trend line in my spreadsheet had us just below 800 by today.

Today we are 1400.

The line says just over 4500 by next Sunday.

#selfisolate #covid19 #shutdowncanada

In case a lot of people end up seeing this, please note I'm just a guy with a spreadsheet.

The numbers are here:
canada.ca/en/public-heal…

I have no expertise and this is just an interesting way to occupy the mind in stressful times.
Please #SelfIsolate
#COVID19
#FlattenTheCurve

March 23 followup.

Jumps on the prairies, especially Saskatchewan.

BC seems to be backing off a bit, but not enough to reverse trend.

Quebec has 400 “probable” cases, but I am only using the “confirmed” number, so expect a big jump from them in the coming days.
#covid19

March 24:
Canada remains on the curve upward... BC does seem to be slowing a little but might just be because of catch up last week. Ontario and Quebec and combination of several other provinces combine for increases. Lots in the pipe. ISOLATE.

canada.ca/en/public-heal…

March 25:
Quebec! Come on mon amis! Always gotta be a little different. 😉❤️ Their big jump throws things off a bit.

I have also included the epidemiological curve (by date of symptoms). It lags behind the reported cases. Only 1600 analyzed so far, thus the flat end.

March 26:
The step-change from Quebec has made the graph a little wacky but that'll resolve itself in time.
I've added a graph from B.C. showing a potentially positive trend in hospitalization. Likely too early but it is hopeful.
canada.ca/en/public-heal…

March 27: 1/3
Dr. Henry and Minister Dix put on a model show and it was pretty great for us nerds! Check out the slides here:
news.gov.bc.ca/files/COVID19_…

The take away for me particularly from the attached graph (+closeup) was that we're doing OK. Not quite as well as South Korea.

2/3
Canada as a nation is a little behind where BC is. But we're doing ok! We need to keep it up, and probably tighten up some more to really 'plank the curve' but we can get there.

BC has 348 ventilators now and hopefully 120 more coming. That is the really critical number.

3/3 Running out of ventilators means terrifying decisions.

Right now, if we don't go too much more above SthKr, we could be OK, particularly if we get those extras.

But it really is a knife edge. If we lose control now, it's bad.

Here are my numbers. They're less cool now.

Addendum: On the 2nd tweet I said BC has 348 ventilators. It should say "across its' large hospitals".

March 29:
I started this thread a week ago. The spreadsheet said we'd see 4500 today.

A big jump in QC as it ramped up testing (like B.C. before) got us to: 5373

I added graphs for %.

1st shows all big values as provinces ramp up. 2nd zooms into normal day to day increases.

Realized the main graph with cases was incorrectly formatted. Here's a proper version of that graph for March 29.

Still waiting for today's numbers.

March 30:
All the numbers in for provinces. Most encouraging is BC which even though it was a 48hr period over the weekend, only registered 10% increase.

PEI had highest increase today but had not reported new cases since the 27th.

ON/QC are concerns.

Canada as a whole 18%.

March 31:
Both BC and AB (light/dark blue) are quite a bit *below* the exponential line which should indicate slowing of new cases. (yay)

Canada should reach 10,000 tomorrow. (boo :( )

Quebec and Ontario still over 15% daily growth = source of big numbers = Canada overall 16%.

PS. I really like the "rings" it makes me think of the "hammer and bell" carnival games, or the ones with the squirt guns. :D
​gph.is/2crVHZT via @GIPHY
btw: Data is always from PHAC

@GIPHY April 1: Canada thankfully didn't break 10K but should tomorrow. Doubling every 5 days.

ON only province tracking just above its exponential trend but QC is a concern. AB, BC, SK tracking well below.

Daily % stabilizing. (Better, consistent data).

KEEP ISOLATING

Note for BC folks, the PHAC data only had an increase of 10 between Mar 30 and 31 then a big jump to the announced numbers today. To remain consistent I used the PHAC numbers which gave a 1.0%/9.9% increase rather than 5.5%/5.2% from the announced numbers.

April 2:
Every province except Ontario seems to be moving below the exponential line.
We'll see what they say tomorrow. Quebec remains concerning due to the sheer number. Both provinces together could overwhelm not only their own, but the entire nations' system.
#KeepIsolating

April 3:
ON remains the focus. The only province with more than 10% growth in cases and the assumption is it is under-counting. QC is double the number in ON.

The better news is Canada as a whole edged only 11% higher. Keep planking that curve folks and have a great weekend!

April 5: 1/3
I started this thread two weeks ago. For three Sundays in a row, the exponential lines "under-predicted" the following Sunday for Canadian cases (this is not a model! Just a spreadsheet).

I think today the spreadsheet might be over-predicting for the first time.

2/3 Todays charts give me hope. The data marks are trending below the exponential lines, maybe even Ontario. (pic 1 and 4)

If Canada was still on an exponential track we would have 75,000 by next Sunday! (pic2) But I am hopeful.

The daily increases seem to be dropping. (pic3)

3/3 We gotta keep #PhysicalDistancing and #selfisolating.

I am still really worried for Ontario and Quebec especially.

Things could go really bad really quickly.

And all the other provinces could easily get out of hand too if we let up.

Keep it up everyone! We got this!

P.S. As always:
1) I am just a guy with a spreadsheet. Please listen to the experts!

2) All data comes from PHAC.
canada.ca/en/public-heal…

3) New PHAC link is cool. phac-aspc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…

4) Take care. Stay positive. Love your friends and neighbours.

We're all #InItTogether