Thread by @DevjyotGhoshal

Thread:

For some days, I've been trying to find out the likely trajectory of the #CoronavirusOutbreak in India.

This is what it might look like: around 100,000 - 1.3 million cases by mid-May.

in.reuters.com/article/health…

These numbers are from a study by @BhramarBioStat & a team of bio-statisticians and epidemiologists, most of them at @UMich.

And they enforce what some experts and health officials have been telling me since last week: cases are going to spike soon.

The original study was based on data up to March 16, but following a request from Reuters, the team updated their model using cases from Indian health authorities up to March 21.

So, by end March: potentially 4,000+ cases
By end-April: 30,000-230,000 cases

The model is based on one used by UMich colleagues to analyze the coronavirus outbreak in Hubei, China, and employed a set of equations taking into account the number of susceptible people, those infected and those who recovered.

And although the researchers have not projected the number of fatalities, @BhramarBioStat told me India could be hard hit because of large numbers of people with existing conditions who were potentially more vulnerable to the virus.

These numbers - which are underestimates - will put India's health system under severe strain.

India probably has only around 100,000 intensive care unit (ICU) beds and 40,000 ventilators, according to Dhruva Chaudhry, president of the Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine.

“We can handle it if an even number (of cases) come over a period of time,” Chaudhry said.

But he warned that there was not sufficient infrastructure or staff to handle a sharp spike in critical patients.

Just look at the forecast again.

India has tested around 20,000 individuals, and health authorities have said the virus has remained largely restricted to those who travelled to affected areas and others who came into direct contact with them.

The central and state govts have also taken drastic measures.

But multiple health officials told me that individuals from high-risk areas may not have been caught by multiple safety nets, allowing the virus to spread.

Evidence: Lucknow and MPs quarantining themselves, cases reported by Indian railways, etc.

.@BhramarBioStat told me that India needed quickly to undertake large-scale testing and contact tracing for exposed individuals.

“But if there is expanded community transmission, central lockdown may be the only way,” she said.

As of earlier this evening, 30 states and UTs have announced a total lock down, covering 548 districts.

The coming few weeks will likely be rough.

Stay safe, and stay put.

Full story here: in.reuters.com/article/health…