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Same pattern now for several days. Both reported cases and tests leveling off.

New US detected cases:
Mon: 21,469
Sun: 20,827
Sat: 18,821
Fri: 18,678
Thu: 16,807

New US reported tests:
Mon: 114K
Sun: 96K
Sat: 109K
Fri: 107K
Thu: 98K
Deaths are not leveling off yet, unfortunately, but the rate of increase is slowing to doubling about every 4 days instead of every 3.

Mon: 535
Sun: 465
Sat: 435
Fri: 367
Thu: 263
New York is reporting fewer new cases than yesterday—and they reported fewer yesterday than Saturday—but their testing numbers have stagnated a bit and otherwise been a little weird lately.

Mon: 6,984
Sun: 7,195
Sat: 7,683
Fri: 7,377
Thu: 6,447

covidtracking.com/data/state/new…
One caution to all the above is that reporting can sometimes be a little slower on weekends and coming out of weekends (i.e. on Mondays). Certainly an issue in some European countries. Less clear if it's true in the US. But would be good to wait until midweek.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Newly-reported US COVID-19 deaths:

Mon 4/6—1182
Sun 4/5—1184
Sat 4/4—1352
Fri 4/3—1178
Thu 4/2—1084
Wed 4/1—954
Tue 3/31—807
Mon 3/30—511
Sun 3/29—463
Sat 3/28—435
Fri 3/27—367
Thu 3/26—263
Wed 3/25—225
Tue 3/24—204
Mon 3/23—73
Sun 3/22—126
Sat 3/21—53
Fri 3/20—59
Thu 3/19—48
So, there's a lot going on here.

There's been a slowdown. But also important: there may be some day-of-week effects. The last two Tuesdays were quite bad. Possible there's a backlog of cases on weekends that then finally make it into Tuesday's reporting.
Source as usual is @COVID19Tracking. Also, there's *clearly* been a New York slowdown, which is tending to dominate the data; NY vs. rest of country may be on somewhat different trajectories.

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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The media narrative was **extremely terrible** for Biden when he came back to win South Carolina by 30 points after having been tied in the polls days earlier.
That SC win created a lot of momentum/favorable media heading into Super Tuesday, and Super Tuesday created further momentum. But Biden really earned that SC landslide by having the trust of black voters and non-college whites who are key in SC (+ Clyburn's endorsement).
Only two candidates (Biden and Bernie) ever really had a mutli-racial, multi-class coalition, which is usually how win the D primary. Of those 2, only Biden really built bridges to the rest of the party, which is usually how you win *any* party nomination, Trump an exception.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Another issue with charts drawn on a log scale is that they literally compress what has been happening *recently* when the stakes are very high (10s of thousands) while placing a lot of visual emphasis on what the slope was when you were going from say 10 cases or deaths to 100.
The US's slope has flattened quite a bit in recent days, especially in New York. Not necessarily flattened any more or less than you'd expect. But it has flattened. And it's quite hard to pick that up from those charts.
To put this in a super dorky way, the shape that an epidemic curve takes is not actually exponential but sigmoidal (S-shaped / it levels off at some point) and putting a sigmoid on a log scale makes it harder to see when you hit the inflection point and start leveling off.
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