Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 14
1/ Still stable @ucsfhospitals. No news = terrific news. Covid+ pts=15 (last 2 wks below). Nine in ICU (5 on ventilators), no change in past few days. Few new pts coming into ICU, but not many leaving. Several floor pts have been discharged
1/ Still stable @ucsfhospitals. No news = terrific news. Covid+ pts=15 (last 2 wks below). Nine in ICU (5 on ventilators), no change in past few days. Few new pts coming into ICU, but not many leaving. Several floor pts have been discharged
2/ SF: also stable. 397 Covid cases, 23 new today (graph). 6 deaths, no new. Contrast w/ NY still stunning: 43,139 cases (up 5052 since yest) w/ 182 new deaths (now >1000). Unimaginable. Now 2 wks since SF shelter-in-place order, so all pre-shelter cases seen, adding to optimism
3/ When I began Covid tweets Mar 18, I thought we’d be inundated by now. Nice to have happier story (in SF) to tell. Relatively benign course here has become news: a real-life example of value of early/aggressive stay-at-home. My op-ed in USA Today, today: bit.ly/2WXxZyc
4/ More focus on curve shapes in past few days. @UW tool bit.ly/342fWs1 is go-to for predicting peak demand. Figs below are vivid demo of surge vs. flattening curve: NY, brutalized now, may peak Apr 9. CA more “flat”, will have longer course, with estimated peak ~Apr 27
5/ The “what happens next” discussion is growing. @washingtonpost article wapo.st/2JxO4m8 summarizes @ScottGottliebMD & @AEI report well; report's phase 2 (post-surge) summary is below. My analogy: the wildfire is out but we need to find & douse embers before they flare
6/ Per @Rutherford_UCSF: need to think nationally, not just locally. George's fear: if we tamp down cases in SF but other cities stay hot (due to no sheltering), “they will not only harm themselves, but potentially re-seed places that have done [better].” We're all connected!
7/ Spoke to a prominent @nytimes reporter, who’s writing obit on person I know who died of Covid. Seeing pic of makeshift morgues in NY is shattering, but for some reason the idea of a reporter (on very different beat) pulled to cover the obit desk, drowning in deaths, got to me
8/ Speaking @nytimes, I was reflectng on when I first realized Covid might be awful. On 2/27–1 mth ago!–on The Daily @mikiebarb intervued science reporter D McNeil. Could be like Spanish flu, where “everybody knew somebody who died.” That line gave me chills; still does
Be well
Be well
