1/ Context. That’s what we are missing.
It’s hard to understand what we are observing because it’s hard to contextualize.
Why are we not panicked about driving on the highway? Because we understand the danger in context of life benefits from driving. It’s a limited danger.
It’s hard to understand what we are observing because it’s hard to contextualize.
Why are we not panicked about driving on the highway? Because we understand the danger in context of life benefits from driving. It’s a limited danger.
2/ But the media has done a very poor job of providing the type of information that would help us contextualize what is happening with the COVID-19 outbreak. In fact it feels like they only want to focus on the most upsetting data. Total deaths.
3/ Death is terrible. No one wants to die. No one wants anyone they love to die. We don’t even deal well with those we don’t know dying. Kobe is one example. But we know him in a way. Yet when I read a cancer story on FB it breaks my heart. Death sucks.
4/ But death is happening all the time. A lot of death. Especially in a country of 350,000,000 people. And that points to the first layer of lack of data. In October 2019 what mortality were scientists projecting for 2020? Are we ahead or behind that number overall?
5/ See by focusing only on the total count of deaths from COVID-19 we also lose the context of overall death. We have made many accommodations for the virus that have reduced activity. That in itself has saved lives. More than the COVID-19 deaths? I don’t know.
6/ I have a father and mother alive in their 80s. My dad had a stroke last year. Whether my dad dies of a stroke or COVID-19, it will be a painful loss. The reality is that my dad doesn’t have long to live. That points to another missing context.
7/ In my dad’s life he’s had two heart attacks, suffered from apnea/COPD, has about 20% kidney function, diabetes and the stroke I mentioned. Literally every organ is in some form of failure. 30 years ago my dad would be dead. Meaning it’s only modern medicine keeping him alive.
8/ But my dad isn’t so unique. In our country there is a huge group of people in all age ranges who are being kept alive as a result of some surgical or pharmaceutical intervention. The group grows larger every day. It’s a blessing of modern life.
9/ But by the same token this blessing is also a curse. Or better said this blessing has introduced a fragility in our population that this virus is exposing. A novel virus is devastating to people with comorbidities because it quickly causes a cascade of issues.
10/ So how large is this group of comorbid adults that are kept alive via medical intervention. I don’t know exactly but it’s got to be in the millions. Ten million? Twenty? Thirty? So in that context 100,000 deaths, which is horrific, takes on a new context.
11/ And it’s also important to keep in mind that the majority of annual deaths from flu are also experienced in this same high risk group. Unfortunately life for this group is more fragile than it is for the rest of us.
12/ There are more layers to this but I think you get the point. We have made a tremendous sacrifice as a society to protect life. That’s a good thing. But there are limits. We don’t shut down the highways. We don’t even shut down bars even though we know they cause death.
13/ Instead of giving good information, instead of helping to put what we are seeing in context our modern media has done everything possible to limit our ability to understand what we are observing. They act as though these deaths are unique. The truth is they are not.
14/ A virus can often be a death sentence to people with underlying comorbidities. This isn’t flu but the majority of those dying are people who could die from the flu. Many are only alive because of the miracle of modern medicine. I’ve gotten 10 to 20 extra years with my dad.
15/ That leads to my last context. Many have said this is the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish flu. But in 1918 the group kept alive by modern medicine wouldn’t have been alive. My opinion is that in 1918 they wouldn’t have been able to distinguish COVID-19 from the flu.
16/ What we are dealing with is rare and painful. COVID-19 isn’t the flu. We’ve taken extreme and bold steps. Rightfully so. But we have to be realistic as well. We need proper context so we can be wise about the way forward. The cure can’t be worse than the disease. /end
