Thread by @m_suchkov

Detailed THREAD on #Russia-#Taliban alleged deal to kill #US military:

*The picture is of 27 November 2001
Author: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP
Title: “A Northern Alliance fighter and a Russian soldier compare their weapons"

1. The @nytimes stories have been making waves in the #US but they have been making waves in #Russia as well, so here’s a bunch of views on this from #Moscow
nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/…

2. OFFICIAL reaction: #Kremlin predictably castigated stories as “ridiculous” & “elaborate hoax”, added that #US,#Russia military have “their own dialogue system that contains restricted information," & “none of American reps have ever raised this question” [with #Moscow]

3. #Putin’s spox Peskov (Jun 30):
"If intel services continue to be accountable before the president in #US, then I suggest you focus on the relevant statement of @realDonaldTrump who already evaluated these publications" (a reference to this tweet by DT)

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1278284552679624705

4. #Russia’s Amb to #US Antonov:
“American journalists seem to be poorly informed abt RU & #US joint efforts twrds political settlement in #Afghanistan.Diplomats from our countries have regular contacts, AFG is one area where efforts never stop,only build up,despite the pandemic”

5.Antonov referred to his recent "constructive & detailed" discussion over #Afghanistan" w/ #US special envoy for AFG Zalmay Khalilzad:
"We agreed to continue coordination of our steps twrds launching consultations between Afghan political forces & the armed opposition"

6. Deputy Foreign Minister Morgulov who works on Afghan file (July 2): “It is difficult not to wonder: who needs this and why all of this is going on? And why now, precisely at this moment, this provocative bit of fake news emerges? A possible explanation is that...

7. "...some part of anti-#Russia/n-minded Washington’s political establishment may not be happy with the quite effective interaction we’ve got on the #Afghan issue, here at @mfa_russia with our colleagues from the @StateDept"

8. This is important statement since it echoes earlier position @mfa_russia took by praising @StateDept as opposed to #US intelligence whom MFA blames for the @nytimes publications and sees it as part of “deep state” working to undermine @realDonaldTrump tass.com/russia/1172369

9. Esp this:“The unpretentious fake clearly demonstrates low intellectual abilities of #US intel propagandists who have to invent such nonsense instead of devising smth more credible. What else could be expected from intel agency that failed miserably in 20-year-long war in AFG?"

10.#Russia’s official position is thus:
- we couldn’t do this
- it was #US who supported militants & launched unlawful activities in #Afghanistan
- NYT reports - domestic story aimed at attacking #Trump
- Some in US intel part of “deep state”, work against DT & their colleagues

11. EXPERT community: Almost consensual view that the @nytimes stories have little merit & are all about #US presidential campaign to target @realDonaldTrump.

12. Even if NYT stories have no concrete proofs of the deal b/n RUS & Taliban (references to “anonymous sources”, all the hot takes are “alleged”, etc. + bad fact-checking on #GRU that no longer exists) this will stick & be used against DT just as any other #Russia-related story

13.PERSONAL view: It’s hard to know for sure sensitive issues that involve intelligence, but I’d say I’d be surprised if NYT story turned out to be true and here's why:

14. #Russia indeed working w/ #Taliban to secure its own interests in AFG – killing #US military not among them.
To a degree US presence in AFG beneficial to RUS.
RUS been cooperative with US on many issues there,#Putin always sought coop on counter-terrorism/security incl in AFG

15. Looking at it from #Russia/n perspective the @nytimes described scheme doesn’t make sense:
(1) why extra pay #Taliban to do what they are doing for their own reasons anyway (targeting #US military) to do so for Russia's reasons?

(2) you can't have a deal w/ #Taliban & expect US military not to learn about it at some point (for 20+ years US has had quite a few sources there); when they learn it, another red line is traspassed which moves confrontation to a whole different level. The gains worth the risk?

(3) why paying #Taliban now that #Americans are on the way out when there was no such thing at the time when #US had bigger & stronger presence and Taliban wanted it out immediately?

16.The article had clear misleads (I’ll spare you explanations of why revenge motive for Syria incident & Skripal assassination attempt relation to “Afghan deal” are baloney) & twists that resonate well for average American reader (Russia’s “hybrid warfare”, ...)

17. ...interference in #US elections) but have little to do with the current Afghan story + peculiar use of language (e.g. #Russia's relations with Taliban been WARMING) that are meant to make the story sound more convincing.

17. In all of that I doubt the deal between #Russia and #Taliban been #Kremlin orchestrated. That said, I don’t exclude at this point that NYT in fact investigated smth else – a drug trafficking (other criminal activity) route that coulda involved a particular...

18. ..unit of #Russia/n military intelligence who dealt with #Taliban on their own terms. In that case, it’s an important, though a different story, that #Moscow should indeed be concerned about and work with #US to investigate further & bring those responsible to justice.

19. It's only my theory which I won't twitter-fight for.
Thou I can see how this report could as well be one of many “Russia-Trump collusion” accounts used to torpedo #Trump with little regard for implications on US-RUS relations.
So far US intel/DoD didn’t confirm the reports.

20. THE END
Sorry it's been long, thanks for bearing with me & I'll keep an eye on further developments