Thread by @MSuchkov_ALM

Short THREAD on my take on #Russia's [in]action to #Turkey's onslaught on #Syria/n army within last 48 hours
[Caveat - this is just my specualtion based on how I read RUS foreign policy, #Putin-#Erdogan relations, and I may be totally wrong]

1. Following killing of TUR servicemen, #Putin, #Erodgan had phone talk where #Turkey's president asked #Russia/n counterpart to "to stand aside in #Syria" and "do what is necessary”, i.e. let Turkey fight Syrian government forces alone"
reuters.com/article/us-syr…

2. In this piece for @AlMonitor I discuss the kind of debates in #Moscow over the crisis with #Turkey and what's at stake for #Russia in #Idlib (and, actually, beyond that). No doubt #Kremlin considers all of this when chosing options on #Syria
al-monitor.com/pulse/original…

@AlMonitor 3. My sense is that #Putin and #Erodgan may have had some kind of agreement that allowed #Turkey to face-off SAA one-on-one (as I predicted before w/out RUS support Syrian army finds it difficult to defend, let alone attack) but avoid targeting RUS servicemen, facilities, etc

@AlMonitor 4. #Erdogan thus saves face doemstically,#Turkey shows #Assad what he's really worth,#Russia suffers some reputation losses (for not standing up for SAA) but at the end of the day will use the situation to make Assad more fkexible to accepting whatever deal Putin & Erdo clinch

@AlMonitor 5. In other words, RUS has all capabilities to avert all the attacks TUR now launches, but stays away - loses tactically - to reap strategic benefits from a grand deal with TUR and, ultiamtely b/n TUR and SYR (on border control, buffer zones, etc.).

@AlMonitor 6. The key unknown in this to me are implications of TUR attacks on Hezbollah targets.
RUS telegram channels report this statement as allegedly coming from #Iran/ian embassy in #Syria. Among other things it says...

@AlMonitor 7."We remind TUR people that their sons been within range of our weapons for over a month&we can retaliate.The gov of Iran informed Prez Erdogan that we'll strike with full force if TUR army continues to bomb our facilities and Syrian army"
NOW,can anyone confirm it or it's fake?