What happened in #Daraa today was not a surprise -- it's been on the cards for 2+ years.
#Assad won't "reconcile" with opponents he has labeled "germs" since 2011 & #Russia has unsurprisingly proven incapable of facilitating the impossible.
This is why UNSCR 2254 exists.
#Assad won't "reconcile" with opponents he has labeled "germs" since 2011 & #Russia has unsurprisingly proven incapable of facilitating the impossible.
This is why UNSCR 2254 exists.
In 2019-20, the most consistently unstable region of #Syria was #Daraa.
Far from being "reconciled," the "cradle of the revolution" had been brutally suppressed & forced to a surrender - & few/none of its conditions were later met.
That's no solution to a decade-long hostility.
Far from being "reconciled," the "cradle of the revolution" had been brutally suppressed & forced to a surrender - & few/none of its conditions were later met.
That's no solution to a decade-long hostility.
When #Syria's largest "reconciled zone" is the country's most unstable, you have incontrovertible evidence that #Russia's reconciliation strategy is a failure.
#Syria will never stabilize with an unchallenged #Assad at the helm - this ought to be clear by today.
#Syria will never stabilize with an unchallenged #Assad at the helm - this ought to be clear by today.
#Assad's #Syria is now the #MiddleEast's narco state -- funneling *billions* of dollars of narcotics as far afield as #Europe.
It's deeply unstable, reliant wholly on repression & as such, ~6 million refugees in neighboring states aren't returning, at all -- crippling economies.
It's deeply unstable, reliant wholly on repression & as such, ~6 million refugees in neighboring states aren't returning, at all -- crippling economies.
In 2014, #ISIS (a symptom) provided a years-long distraction from the root causes of #Syria's crisis & the West's attention has waned ever since.
In early-2018, the U.S. was complicit in selling out #Daraa to #Russia -- U.S. officials knew full well it'd be besieged & conquered.
In early-2018, the U.S. was complicit in selling out #Daraa to #Russia -- U.S. officials knew full well it'd be besieged & conquered.
#Russia's offer of "reconciliation" (& promises to block #Iran from being active in the south) were a sufficient carrot to get the U.S. to cut off their years-old & most consistent/reliable #FSA partners, the Southern Front.
= #Iran never left.
= Reconciliation failed.
= #Iran never left.
= Reconciliation failed.
Western officials' standard position now amounts to 'kicking the can down the road' -- a status quo approach that in truth is unsustainable.
That's just not enough -- the trajectory we're on points to #Syria evolving into a regional plague alike #NorthKorea & #Somalia combined.
That's just not enough -- the trajectory we're on points to #Syria evolving into a regional plague alike #NorthKorea & #Somalia combined.
Similarly, the position embraced by some in the region -- to normalize with #Assad, embrace #Russia & isolate #Iran/#Turkey -- is a recipe for disaster.
Reinforcing all the root causes & drivers of #Syria's instability is a fools' errand, but it's walking steadily forward.
Reinforcing all the root causes & drivers of #Syria's instability is a fools' errand, but it's walking steadily forward.
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