Thread by @robsatloff

Enough people who know about #Afghanistan are weighing in on the tragic/frightening scenes in #Kabul that there's no need for me to add my 2 cents. I do know something about the #MiddleEast so here are some thoughts about the ripples of the #Taliban victory across the region.1/13

No regional government is thrilled with both the humbling of US power AND the rise of a violent radical Sunni extremist govt in #Kabul allied with al-Qaeda. Some may welcome the former but none want the latter. 2/13

Some, especially in #Turkey and #Qatar, will position themselves as #Taliban-whisperers, offering to tame/interpret/represent #Kabul's new leaders to the outside world. Their real influence is likely to be minimal. Caveat emptor. 3/13

#Iran is a wildcard, surely cheering the slap in the face to the #USA but fearful of a #Sunni terrorist state next-door. A key Q is whether #Tehran will reach a devil's-deal with the #Taliban, as it did with al-Qaeda in the past, built on shared virulent anti-Americanism. 4/13

Broadly speaking, the damage to US standing in the region is significant but not a death-blow. Nothing is inevitable; it depends on critical decisions by the #Biden Admin. Here are three core ones: 5/13

First, will the Admin signal engagement or retrenchment in its brewing confrontation, on multiple fronts, w/#Iran? #Tehran is likely to read #Kabul's fall as an invitation to increase the tempo of its proxy and maritime challenges and to double-down on its nuclear advances. 6/13

The USG needs to respond soon, in effective ways, to #Iran's growing challenge or regional friends and foes alike will, rightly or wrongly, read into inaction the early stages of an #Afghan-like withdrawal from the region. 7/13

Second, will the Admin stay the course in #Iraq, with its 2500 US military "advisors" that provide the ballast for a more-or-less democratic system that, with all its flaws and structural obstacles, is functioning reasonably well? 8/13

A pullout from #Iraq would pave the way for an expansion of #Iranian control and would be disastrous both for that country as well as for the entire #Gulf and #Levant, in ways that the #Afghan tremors just aren't. 9/13

Third, more broadly, will the US act now -- in ways we didn't act to ensure an orderly withdrawal from #Afghanistan -- to coordinate among our key #MiddleEast allies to shore up our strategic partnerships, prevent bad actors from filling local vacuums and 10/13

work together to deny violent jihadists the ability to draw upon the renewed energy from the #Afghan collapse to reconstitute themselves and pose a threat to US interests, assets and allies? 11/13

This means high-level engagement with key partners in #SaudiArabia, #Egypt, #UAE, #Israel & elsewhere, regardless of whatever political differences we have with those governments on other issues. 12/13

Bottom line: As horrible as the images out of #Kabul are, the implications for US interests in the #MiddleEast are not foreordained. To the contrary, they will be determined by what the #Biden Admin decides and how effectively it executes those decisions. 13/13