Thread by @robsatloff

I have read the entire #Israel-#Palestinian peace plan and my advice to revelers is not to pop the champagne anytime soon -- "peace" is not around the corner. Here's a quick assessment. 1/11

I congratulate the plan's authors for injecting some realism into conventional views of this conflict. It is realistic for the Jordan River to be Israel's security barrier. It is realistic for hundreds of thousands of Israelis in West Bank not to be forced to relocate. 2/11

But they took those & other principles and stretched them beyond all recognition. #Israeli security control of #JordanValley became full sovereignty; not uprooting hundreds of thousands of settlers became not uprooting even 1 settler. There are no Solomonic judgments here. 3/11

In other words, plan is heavily tilted toward this Israeli government's desiderata & conditions benefits for #Palestinians on long list of requirements over which #Israel stands in judgment. Even then, not clear what negotiations would entail since the plan is so detailed. 4/11

Also, I think the authors may not quite appreciate the words they used. On #TempleMount/#HaramAlSharif, for example, they say they back the "status quo" but then they endorse "people of every faith should be permitted to pray," which is not the "status quo." Can't be both. 5/11

And there is a trap for #Palestinians, ie #Israel has no responsibilities under this plan unless/until the #PalestinianAuthority retakes #Gaza (or until #Hamas changes its anti-#Israel stripes) -- a prospect no one believes is going to happen anytime soon. 6/11

So, even if #Abbas wanted to support this -- which he won't -- the plan is, at best, in suspended animation for as long as #Hamas controls #Gaza. And there is a lot here that #Abbas, the PLO leadership and the Palestinian street will find anathema. 7/11

All we know for sure is that USG has given blessing for #Israel to extend it law to -- ie, annex -- the Jordan Valley and all settlements, a large part of the West Bank. That is what will trigger #Arab and #Palestinian reaction, even more than the details of the plan. 8/11

Sadly, #Abbas appears likely to respond by closing ranks w/his most radical opponents #Hamas & #PIJ, which will only contribute to a further spiral downward. While one can't expect him to applaud unilateral #Israeli annexation, one should expect him to reject terrorists. 9/11

In the near-term (pre-March 2 election), result is likely to create a worse security relationship between #Israel & #PA and to deepen the crisis between #Jerusalem & #Amman, whose leadership faces v/serious problem because this plan's US sponsor is #Jordan's largest donor. 10/11

Longer-term -- this plan is premised on a second term for #Trump. If that happens, the political dynamics may force a re-think by some #Arabs/#Palestinians. If it doesn't happen, I doubt much of this plan survives as US policy. 11/11