#China #Evergrande contagion check!

And possible shorting opportunities cause turns out, not everything's gone down yet!

Using this to find property developers in the first place:
investasian.com/2020/09/09/chi…

And Seeking Alpha/Bondsupermart. Picking a random bond cause i'm lazy.
1. Country garden: Fucked.
Their market cap is now 1/3rd of enterprise value, which i'm using as a quick check, should be obvious what problems are facing the entire sector now. The closer those values are, the less problems their in.
2. Poly Real Estate Group
Couldn't find much on this one, seems to be part of a larger SOE. Nevertheless, the bond POLHON 4.000% 10Nov2025 Corp (USD)
Ease Trade Global Limited (Keepwell: China Poly Group Corporation Limited) is also diving.

Iz best i got.
Skipping 3, cause we know Evergrande.

4: Vanke, not yet affected! Opportunity because it's part of the big 3 that my Chinese friend mentioned, and Country Garden was the one doing well.

Market cap is ~40% of enterprise value. Their last reported free cash flow: -$2.64B.
5, Sunac: Completely Fucked.
Market cap is <$9B, Enterprise value $52B.

Shows you how deeply troubled these markets are, because Seeking Alpha lists their last Net Income as $5,68B (on an Enterprise Value of $52B that's highly sus lol), and free cash flow of $4,77B (again, sus).
Also they're listed as -20% premarket LOL.
6, Longfor Properties: Opportunity! Not yet affected.

Enterprise value, $58 billion, Market cap, $25 billion.

Share price $39.67, book value per share: 2.84. Plenty of cash on hand ($15B), but that's according to SA.
Mind you, between CG ($58B), Vanke ($67B), Sunac ($52B), Longfor ($58B), and polygroup's probably around the same size, we're looking at a 2nd Evergrande already in terms of size.

7, Seazen holdings: Fucked.
Can't find market cap but i'm assuming around the same size.
8, China Resources Land: Opportunity! Not yet affected.

$56B enterprise value, $26B market cap.

SA's stats though is looking like the best one i've seen yet. But we're not talking polished turds here, but contagion risk. The market might not care.
Finally 9 (couldn't find 10), China Overseas Investment & Land Ltd: Fucked.

Couldn't find a bond because there's too many, part of China Holdings Group.

I know they're fucked, because Ping An is also a part of them, and they already got hit with contagion.

$44B EV, $22B MC.
Now, there's probably more, but i'm not gonna keep this up all night.

The point i wanted to make is, #Evergrande #Contagion is already well underway, and we're not dealing with small companies here. Each one of these is large enough to shock the system, and MOST are already gone

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More from @DesoGames

20 Sep
AH fuck it, i'll join the bandwagon, since people asked (and i don't wanna type this story in DMs).

Thread🧵on #Evergrande!

Why #contagion will continue to spread, why Xi will NOT change course, why it's The Federal Reserve's fault, why Hyperinflation's next, and more!
First off, Why Now?

Evergrande's been Teetering for more then a year. Naturally, things have to come to a head at some point, but why now?

I think the answer is found in Commodities. Specifically the fact that building important stuff like #Iron and #Copper have been mooning.
To stem the tide, at $4,8 a pound copper, #China announced they would release metals from their strategic reserves to stop the price increases, and copper took a dive.

Reserves they ran up in July 2020 when the price was cheap, btw. China Copper imports were off the charts.
Read 26 tweets
20 Sep
As we must look forever forward; with the current corrections i did a *little* bit of work (don't expect more) to find more deep value.

Now that #Uranium's gone up, and hopefully #Silver is next in a flight to safety;

With #Palladium correcting, #Platinum's becoming VERY cheap.
The last times it was below $900, was in 2020 (panic), 2018 (bear market), 2016 (double bottom), 2008 (panic), and 2005/2004 (bull market).

Meanwhile, the outlook for #platinum is far more positive now:
- ICE cars being phased out before 2075 *is a pipedream*.
When 1 or 2 smallish countries try to transition fully, sure, it can happen.

When the entire world tries to do so at the same time, which includes China, NONE of the battery metal industries are ready for that scale.

Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Rare Earths. None are ready.
Read 13 tweets
24 May
It's time.

🚨🚨MARKET TOP WARNING🚨🚨

MULTIPLE INDICATORS HAVE TURNED FOR THE WORSE!

I've got enough confirmations now to warn for a correction - the asymmetrical crash i've been talking about. 👇
#Gold #silver #rhodium #bonds #nasdaq #Fintwit #wallstreetsilver #silversqueeze
First up the most important one, Rhodium.

Rhodium tends to go ballistic in the final phase of market bubbles. Nobody knows why, but it happened before the 2000 bubble blew, same with the 2008 bubble...

...and it's showing clear topping patterns.
But it's not just Rhodium.

All INDUSTRIAL precious metals are showing similar topping patterns.

AND! The strength of those tops correlates with the industrial element of each metal.

Palladium looks like Rhodium, while Gold is going straight up. Silver offers the awnser:
Read 15 tweets
22 May
Shouldn't have touched my friend.

Don't listen to somebody who runs a literal ponzi AND pyramid scheme @goldsilver_pros. Thanks for posting a rebuttal page Richard that makes it easy.

Let's run through #HEX shall we? 👇

First off, you need a bit of humility. 30 =/= 8.5 (or 28) Image
From your own page.

- You ADMIT HEX is backed *by air*. "Whatever" is a very large range, and that includes Zero.

- Your argument against Bitcoin being a scam is "people own it". People are easily fooled.

- Ethereum isn't a scam, but there's no calls on its longevity either. Image
Finally the bottom one. There is a KEY difference that makes Bitcoin and HEX substantially different:

The process of mining costs labor/resources. Simply locking up cash, doesn't.

"Anybody wanna pay me dollars for funny money? i'll give you more funny money later!"
Read 22 tweets
21 May
💣BOMBSHELL💣

#BITFINEX CEO JAN VAN DER VELDE TIED TO HISTORIC #GERMAN DOT-COM FRAUD!

Quite the thread; so tags first.
#Bitcoin #BTC $BTC #Tether #USDT $USDT #Coinbase $COIN #USDC $USDC #Binance $BUSD #BUSD @Bitfinexed @BennettTomlin @LucaLand97 @Tr0llyTr0llFace @TESLAcharts Image
Where to start with this one. I guess first some background information on one of the biggest frauds of the Dot-Com bubble in Germany: Infomatec.

This was a company that was basically pumping its shareprice with "ad-hoc announcements", meaning literally just lying. ImageImage
Now, after reading some articles today on Bitfinex's CEO, i thought i'd have a go at trying to find out more about this guy. A quick google came up with a reddit post people probably have seen before, attached below. I've also reattached the linkedin profile that link leads to. ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
14 Apr
NEW RESEARCH!

This time, going after $ARKK - Well, the lot of em.

I heard that #Cathiewood had obtained a large amount of the float of some Illiquid stocks, and i wanted to see how big the problem was.

And i found out this woman has no clue what she's investing in. Thread 👇
So what i did;

Courtesy of arktrack.com and seekingalpha.com, i went through $ARKK's most illiquid names, to see how difficult it would be to liquidate those positions - AND to see if the companies are valued anywhere near correctly.

So i looked at some stats.
I looked at shares per company and the float, then calculated how much of that float ARK has across all funds (using the "individual stocks" tab on the site).

That's necessary because *multiple ARK funds own ALL of them!*

Also looked at 3month and 7day average volume.
Read 47 tweets

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